The Big Blue Wrecking Crew

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BluePastorKyle:

Shmolnick had some good ideas for thread-starters last week, and the one that stood out to me (that I'd like to see some discussion on) was the one about what's ailing Russ. Give me stats, swing assessments, lineup order issues, mental distractions, steroid accusations, whatever. Some interesting stats on the man currently:

- He's drawn ONE walk in his last 7 games.
- He has yet to hit a HR in 2009.
- He was supposedly ready to "mature" by not insisting on starting so much, but he's started 40 of the Dodgers 46 games this year.
- He lost quite a bit of weight (maybe 10-15 pounds) in the offseason. Was it 'roid related? I'm just asking, not accusing. Much hoopla was made over him working out so hard and getting focused, thus the weight-loss, but one has to wonder due to the severe lack of power.

I'm wondering if there's not a private pool in the clubhouse about who will get his first home run in 2009 - Slappy or Russ?

Not trying to be flippant here, but didn't Russell get married or something recently? If so, could that distraction have reduced his baseball focus somehow?

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shmolnick:

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BluePastorKyle:

Shmolnick had some good ideas for thread-starters last week, and the one that stood out to me (that I'd like to see some discussion on) was the one about what's ailing Russ. Give me stats, swing assessments, lineup order issues, mental distractions, steroid accusations, whatever. Some interesting stats on the man currently:

- He's drawn ONE walk in his last 7 games.
- He has yet to hit a HR in 2009.
- He was supposedly ready to "mature" by not insisting on starting so much, but he's started 40 of the Dodgers 46 games this year.
- He lost quite a bit of weight (maybe 10-15 pounds) in the offseason. Was it 'roid related? I'm just asking, not accusing. Much hoopla was made over him working out so hard and getting focused, thus the weight-loss, but one has to wonder due to the severe lack of power.

I'm wondering if there's not a private pool in the clubhouse about who will get his first home run in 2009 - Slappy or Russ?

Not trying to be flippant here, but didn't Russell get married or something recently? If so, could that distraction have reduced his baseball focus somehow?
Oh, absolutely! That's not flippant at all. I didn't know he'd gotten married. If so, anybody who is married knows that's nothing to scoff at. The first year of marriage is usually the toughest year in one's life, due to the fact that all your faults are pointed out to you by someone who knows you better than any has ever known you in your entire life.

I imagine that a young ball player (or anyone who is truly amazing at something - and famous for it) has a heck of a time adjusting to the fact that someone they love sees them for who they really are - at the core. Just like the rest of us, flawed human beings in need of a heavy dose of grace.

Not sure if it's marriage (didn't even know he had gotten married). He trended down a bit last year, but that could have been overuse. I would not be surprised to see Torre start giving a little more PT to Ausmus. Brad could even become Kershaw's personal catcher.

Just observing his mannerisms, Martin seems to be a little more cocky than he used to be. That's probably normal after winning a gold glove and a silver slugger. Prior to that, during ST of 2007 he impressed me with his polite manner. He was big on saying "Sir" to middle aged guys like me, a trait rarely seen in today's players.

Probably more importantly, Martin seems to be a little pull happy at the plate. He's at his best when he's going up the middle and finding the outfield gaps. Those 19 home runs he hit were probably an aberration. Not making comparisons or bringing in the Vitamin S question, but Paul LoDuca had a 25 home run season, but never approached that again. I would hope he forgets about hitting home runs and just stays within himself and hits the ball back up the middle more often.

Turtle is doing much the same as he has for the past couple of seasons in terms of drawing BBs and maintaining a VG BA to OBP spread above 100 pts, so his recent inability to draw BBs is probably just a small aberration.

What isn't a small aberation is his decline in XBHs. He had 48 2BHs/HRs last season, but is only on a pace for about half that this season, with no HRs thus far. So, it is this huge drop-off in power from a not very lofty perch to begin with that is troublesome.

I am not sure what the cause of the power outage is, but at his best he is a .400 OBP/.400 SLG hitter. Right now he is a .400 OBP/.325 SLG hitter.

Again, for the most part, our young bats continue to NOT improve their power hitting, and in some cases seem to be declining.

Okay, I double-checked - he's NOT married, but he has a serious girlfriend. Same thing perhaps, in terms of the effect on his baseball focus?

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kennerbuggy:

Turtle is doing much the same as he has for the past couple of seasons in terms of drawing BBs and maintaining a VG BA to OBP spread above 100 pts, so his recent inability to draw BBs is probably just a small aberration.

What isn't a small aberation is his decline in XBHs. He had 48 2BHs/HRs last season, but is only on a pace for about half that this season, with no HRs thus far. So, it is this huge drop-off in power from a not very lofty perch to begin with that is troublesome.

I am not sure what the cause of the power outage is, but at his best he is a .400 OBP/.400 SLG hitter. Right now he is a .400 OBP/.325 SLG hitter.

Again, for the most part, our young bats continue to NOT improve their power hitting, and in some cases seem to be declining.

I'm wondering if the power outage among the Dodgers' young players is a function of Mattingly's instruction. Not saying it's good or bad, but the two might be connected (fewer HRs and a full season of Mattingly as batting coach).

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shmolnick:

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kennerbuggy:

Turtle is doing much the same as he has for the past couple of seasons in terms of drawing BBs and maintaining a VG BA to OBP spread above 100 pts, so his recent inability to draw BBs is probably just a small aberration.

What isn't a small aberation is his decline in XBHs. He had 48 2BHs/HRs last season, but is only on a pace for about half that this season, with no HRs thus far. So, it is this huge drop-off in power from a not very lofty perch to begin with that is troublesome.

I am not sure what the cause of the power outage is, but at his best he is a .400 OBP/.400 SLG hitter. Right now he is a .400 OBP/.325 SLG hitter.

Again, for the most part, our young bats continue to NOT improve their power hitting, and in some cases seem to be declining.

I'm wondering if the power outage among the Dodgers' young players is a function of Mattingly's instruction. Not saying it's good or bad, but the two might be connected (fewer HRs and a full season of Mattingly as batting coach).
As a team we are doing great with 2BHs, but not HRs.

Loney seems to be getting his share of 2BHs but we need more HRs from a corner player. The hope with Loney is that he will get more loft and oomph behind his swing as he enters his late 20's, but there hasn't been a sign of that yet.

Bison needs to make more consistent contact. OCMike noted the other day in a game thread that he doesn't adjust during a game, which is one of his problems. As I noted a couple of weeks ago, Bison is tantalizingly close to his tipping point, as he is now proving capable of maintaining a BA to OBP spread of about 70 pts, while maintaining a .275+ BA. He needs to improve more in recognizing off-speed stuff, stike zone awareness and adjusting to how a pitcher is pitching him. This will probably remain a gradual improvement process for Bison, with the question being does he top out as a .825-850 OPS hitter or a .875+ OPS hitter?

Turtle just doesn't seem to be swinging with any authority. Sam may be right in that he isn't using the whole field, but normally being pull-conscious relates to more SLG at the expense of many more K's and lower BA and OBP, and with Turtle it's been about the opposite. He just seems to be avoiding missing pitches, as opposed to hitting fat pitches as hard as he can - to the gaps.

I did some digging into Martin's stats for this, and what surprises me more than anything is how much nothing I found. This one's a real head-scratcher, because usually there's some difference that would explain something like this, but...

- BB% hasn't changed from years past
- K% is up about 5%
- BABIP is up slightly
- GB/FB is in line with career averages
- GB%, FB% more or less unchanged
- LD% actually up slightly

There's really nothing there that signals "huge power loss". He's actually hitting more line drives, which is a good thing, but it's not like he's hitting markedly more grounders or fewer fly balls. Except for the fact that he just hasn't hit any dingers, there's not a whole lot to go on.

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Mike Scioscias tragic illness:

I did some digging into Martin's stats for this, and what surprises me more than anything is how much nothing I found. This one's a real head-scratcher, because usually there's some difference that would explain something like this, but...

- BB% hasn't changed from years past
- K% is up about 5%
- BABIP is up slightly
- GB/FB is in line with career averages
- GB%, FB% more or less unchanged
- LD% actually up slightly

There's really nothing there that signals "huge power loss". He's actually hitting more line drives, which is a good thing, but it's not like he's hitting markedly more grounders or fewer fly balls. Except for the fact that he just hasn't hit any dingers, there's not a whole lot to go on.
There's nothing obvious statistically that jumps out at me either.

Turtle just isn't hitting with much sock, and it's not obvious why.

It could be just an unusually high % of atem balls, in terms of liners that drop in front of the OFs as opposed to between them.

I don't think that he is weary from being over-played, and his bat doesn't seem slow. He just isn't centering balls on the bat for some reason.

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shmolnick:

Okay, I double-checked - he's NOT married, but he has a serious girlfriend. Same thing perhaps, in terms of the effect on his baseball focus?
Eh, I don't think it's nearly the same at all. With that information, I'm willing to bet his on-field struggles have little or nothing to do with his girlfriend.

I hate to say it because I love Russell but I'd bet it is 'roid related. Yes, he got a serous girlfriend in the offseason and the story is that's why he lost the weight but have we ever heard the story "I lost weight because I stopped taking steroids"? And when they gain a lot of weight like Beltre and increase power it is always because they worked out so hard all offseason. Remember Gagne's story about how he was eating sushi in the offseason and that's why he lost so much weight? Why does it seem that when sluggers lose weight they also coincidentally lose the pop in their bats? I hope it's not true, but this is what I believe.

And even more serious that that, is anyone else worried that Manny might not come back the same monstrous player he was when he left?

Lots of interesting stuff, but I think that Russell has not taken to Donnie Ballgame's approach to hitting. Nearly every other hitter on the Blue is willing to go the other way, but Russell is still heavily pull happy and when he is struggling, he pulls his hips out way too quickly and therefore has nothing behind his swing. I just think he has to go back to what got him to the show, go up the middle more and take what the pitchers give him.

Bottom line, so long as the Dodgers are finding ways to win, I'm willing to be patient on J. Mart.

Vin Scully made a sage observation about Martin last week in Colorado. He stated that Martin sees more breaking balls than any other Dodger. Maybe that's the book on him and that's why he's struggling somewhat.

Here's hoping he gets off the home run schneid with a couple of dingers tonight at Wrigley.

So basically, he's Cerrano.

"What are you saying, Jesus can't hit a curve ball?"

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BluePastorKyle:

So basically, he's Cerrano.

"What are you saying, Jesus can't hit a curve ball?"

I heard that the Denver Nuggets' coach said that Jesus couldn't guard Kobe Bryant.

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BluePastorKyle:

So basically, he's Cerrano.

"What are you saying, Jesus can't hit a curve ball?"
I thought the J stood for Jeanson.