[Closed] The 2009 Hot Stove League: Making us Phillie Proof in 2010

Diamond Notes has Colletti in an interview being coy about John Lackey and restating that our #1 need is SP, then a 2B.

Now that I think about it, how CAN Lackey get 5/100? Who can actually afford that?

Chicago Cubs - they sure could use Lackey, but their payroll is bloated and they are not likely able to commit an additional 20M to one player.
NY Mets - they already have a $20M ace, and gave Oliver Perez a huge payday STUPIDLY last season, the chances of them doing it again are low
NY Yankees - they just dropped an insane amount of cash on Teix, Burnett, and Sabathia and although it's possible, I would imagine they would NOT drop another $20M on a starting pitcher.
Red Sox - they have some $$ to spend, maybe $20M or more, but they also need to re-sign Bay (est. 15per) and there are talks of long-terming martinez. They are definitely a player, but would it be prudent to commit $20M to Lackey when they already have so much tied up in their rotation?
Tigers - Not much dough to spend after potential raises to verlander, edwin Jackson and others ... it's possible, but not likely at that 20M price tag
Angels - They already snagged kazmir to let Lackey walk and talks broke down quickly between the two, perhaps at the right price? Not at 5/100 - that's been made clear.

Aside from those top payroll teams, there aren't others I consider serious contenders for Lackey's services at that price tag. Houston? No way. Seattle? No way. Us? No way at $20M.

If Lackey goes for 4/60 is he worth it?

He's 31, coming off two DECENT years, but marred with minor injuries where he started 27 and 24 games in 09 and 08 respectively. He's a career 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP guy, that has a nice ~3:1 strikeout-walk ratio, but also has never K'd over 200 in a season. He does have a good post-season track record, not amazing - 3.12 ERA.

What do you guys think? I'd love Halladay, but the price tag AND the cost in prospects would be insane. Does Lackey compare? Would he improve in the NL? Can he stay healthy?

Most importantly is ANYONE going to offer anything near $100M to him?

Willie:

As much as I hate the Yankees, it would almost be worth seeing them win, just to see someone wipe that ugly smile off Charlie Manuel's face.

If the Phillies win, it will continue to prove that a good (or even competent) manager is not always necessary to winning a title.

DoppelgangBang:

Diamond Notes has Colletti in an interview being coy about John Lackey and restating that our #1 need is SP, then a 2B.

He's 31, coming off two DECENT years, but marred with minor injuries where he started 27 and 24 games in 09 and 08 respectively. He's a career 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP guy, that has a nice ~3:1 strikeout-walk ratio, but also has never K'd over 200 in a season. He does have a good post-season track record, not amazing - 3.12 ERA.

What do you guys think? I'd love Halladay, but the price tag AND the cost in prospects would be insane. Does Lackey compare? Would he improve in the NL? Can he stay healthy?

Lackey argument - Part 1

We need to upgrade/supplement our starting pitching, which taking away our free agents leaves us with .....

Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and a handful of prospects who have either not had much experience or success in the big leagues (McDonald, Elbert, Stults, Haeger).

We need a #1. I know that this is not an original thought and all teams could use one, but with Kuroda going into the last year of his contract (plus his health issues) and the youth of the rest of the staff we need someone that can lead by example and take the pressure off of CB and CK until they are ready.

IMO, depending on what he ends up asking for, John Lackey is the guy. While I have always liked him and his pitching style, he sealed the deal with his work in the post season this year, especially his comments to Scioscia on the mound during Game 5 of the ALCS. To paraphrase ..... "Are you shitting me ... This is my game ... It's mine". He was pissed. Sounds just like what a guy like Drysdale would have said in the same situation. He is an old school type pitcher, a "Bulldog", who wants the ball in pressure situations, fights to the end (even when he doesn't have his best stuff) and doesn't back down. That is the type of guy we want leading our staff.

The guy (record wise) that Lackey keeps getting compared to by the pundits is current Yankee, AJ Burnett. Burnett after two mediocre (an injury filled) years in 2006 and 2007 turned a healthy and productive 2008 into a 5 year/$82.5 million contract with New York, or an average of $16.5 million per year. Burnett was born in January of 1977 (with a season playing age of 32 last year). Lackey, while born only a year later, in October of 1978 is actually two years younger (baseball wise) and will only be 31 next season. While both have had some injury concerns in their careers, Burnett has by far the poorer medical history of the two. Plus, while their stats are very similar, Lackey has pitched his entire career in the AL while Burnett spent a little more that half (innings wise) of his playing time in the NL. If Lackey will sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of Burnett's deal, I would say it's a no brainer.

14 12 3.84 34 34 219 172 103 93 20 92 204 1.30 7.91 3.78 8.37 2.22 (AJ Burnett)
15 10 3.81 34 34 219 221 102 93 22 64 175 1.31 9.11 2.64 7.20 2.72 (John Lackey)

W-L-ERA-GP-GS-IP-H-R-ER-HR-BB-SO-WHIP-H/9-BB/9-SO/9-SO/BB

** #'s shown above are career averages per 162 games **

Lackey's career stats

RH John Lackey – 6’6” 205 – R/R – 10/23/78 - Los Angeles Angels

02: (23) - 09 04 3.66 18 18 108.1 113 052 044 10 33 069 1.35
03: (24) - 10 16 4.63 33 33 204.0 223 117 105 31 66 151 1.42
04: (25) - 14 13 4.67 33 32 198.1 215 108 103 22 60 144 1.39
05: (26) - 14 05 3.44 33 33 209.0 208 085 080 13 71 199 1.34
06: (27) - 13 11 3.56 33 33 217.2 203 098 086 14 72 190 1.26
07: (28) - 19 09 3.01 33 33 224.0 219 087 075 18 52 179 1.21
08: (29) - 12 05 3.75 24 24 163.1 161 071 068 26 40 130 1.23
09: (30) - 11 08 3.83 27 27 176.1 177 084 075 17 47 139 1.27

YR-AGE-W-L-ERA-GP-GS-IP-H-R-ER-HR-BB-SO-WHIP

102 71 3.81 234 233 1501.0 1519 702 636 151 441 1201 1.31 9.11 2.64 7.20 2.72

W-L-ERA-GP-GS-IP-H-R-ER-HR-BB-SO-WHIP-H/9-BB/9-SO/9-SO/BB

In seeing what AL guys like Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia and to a lesser extent Joel Pineiro and Vicente Padilla have done recently after switching from the AL to the NL, I believe that Lackey would excel as well.

DoppelgangBang:

Diamond Notes has Colletti in an interview being coy about John Lackey and restating that our #1 need is SP, then a 2B.

What do you guys think? I'd love Halladay, but the price tag AND the cost in prospects would be insane. Does Lackey compare? Would he improve in the NL? Can he stay healthy?

Lackey Argument - Part 2 - Other Options and Cost

If not Lackey, then who and what would it cost. Remember, the cost is not just in $$, but also the talent being given to another team to acquire a similar or better option. Each of these players would require not
only an immense package of talent to acquire, but also an immense package of money to secure to future seasons to justify the talent given up. Lackey would only cost a, that’s one …. 1st Round Pick. Remember too, who this argument is being made by. I am a draft guy and hate to give up picks.

Roy Halladay - 6’6” 225 – R/R – 5/14/77 – 2010 Age: 33

17 09 3.43 35 33 232 226 099 088 19 52 169 1.20 8.78 2.00 6.57 3.29

Halladay is in the final year of a 3 year / $40 million dollar contract which will pay him $15.75 million in 2010, after which he will be a free agent. So not only would we have to trade a significant amount of talent from our roster (major league, minor league, or a combination of both), but we would have to extend Halladay’s contract. His stats are tremendous and far outweigh Lackey’s, but he will be 33 near the beginning of the 2010 season and should command (due to his dominance in the AL East) a contract far greater (on a yearly pay scale) than Lackey. He also has a no trade clause that we may have to compensate him for.

Free Agent following 2010 season

Zack Greinke – 6’2” 200 – R/R – 10/21/83 – 2010 Age: 26

11 12 3.73 38 30 193 196 086 080 20 49 163 1.27 9.14 2.28 7.60 3.33

Greinke had a breakout season for the Royals this year and is a finalist (along with Halladay and Hernadez) for the AL CY Young Award. He is under contract for the next three seasons at a price tag of $34.25 million (10: $7.25 m / 11: $13.5 m / 12: $13.5 m), after which he will be a free agent. His price tag ($$) is very reasonable for someone with his career stats and future potential and we would have him for at least three years. It would take quite a lot to pry him from the Royals though.

Free Agent following the 2012 season

Felix Hernandez – 6’3” 225 – R/R – 04/08/86 – 2010 Age: 24

14 10 3.45 34 34 223 213 095 085 20 71 200 1.27 8.58 2.85 8.06 2.82

Hernandez also had a breakout season and at 23, was the youngest of the bunch. Seattle had a lot of money come off of the books this off-season and has the money to lock up one of the best young pitchers in the game to a long-term deal. Boston already made a very lucrative offer to the Mariners at the trading deadline but they declined. His availability will probably come down to 1) their ability to convince him that they can compete, 2) the size of the deal it will take to sign him and 3) the package they can get for him.

Free Agent following the 2011 season

Josh Johnson – 6’7” 240 – L/R – 01/31/84 – 2010 Age: 26

14 07 3.40 36 32 202 188 083 076 15 73 178 1.29 8.38 3.27 7.95 2.43

Johnson is the staff ace of the young Marlins and while he has had some injury issues in his career, he was healthy and had an outstanding 2009 season. His agent (Matt Sosnick) has already fired the first volley into what he and Johnson expect once he hits free agency.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/josh-johnson-will-seek-big-payday.html

The Marlins have been known to ship off players as they become expensive. Even with their new ballpark on the horizon, I don't think that they can keep him. Depending on when they are willing to trade him, he might come the cheapest in terms of talent. The Tigers "only" gave up LH Andrew Miller and CF Cameron Maybin for CI Miguel Cabrera. Still a lot to pay in terms of talent, but definitely not as bad as Seattle gave up for Erik Bedard (CF Adam Jones, RH Chris Tillman, LH George Sherrill, etc ...)

Not only is Johnson a top of the line starter, but also an excellent hitter. He is the full package and will be one of the best players in the game going forward if he remains healthy.

Free Agent following the 2011 season

2009 Season Stats (Comparison)

11 08 3.83 27 27 176.1 177 84 75 17 47 139 1.27 9.03 2.40 7.10 2.96 6.53 (John Lackey)
17 10 2.79 32 32 239.0 234 82 74 22 35 208 1.13 8.81 1.32 7.83 5.94 7.47 (Roy Halladay)
16 08 2.16 33 33 229.1 195 64 55 11 51 242 1.07 7.65 2.00 9.50 4.75 6.95 (Zack Greinke)
19 05 2.49 34 34 238.2 200 81 66 15 71 217 1.13 7.54 2.68 8.18 3.06 7.02 (Felix Hernandez)
15 05 3.23 33 33 209.0 184 77 75 14 58 191 1.16 7.92 2.50 8.23 3.29 6.33 (Josh Johnson)

There is no way Manny opts out. There is a difference in Manny being Manny versus Manny and Boras being fiscally stupid. I just don't see any team willing to top $20M for a guy who was suspended for steroid use followed by the three worst months of his career.

It's funny, what a difference a year makes. This time last year we were hoping and praying Manny would return and now...not so much.

The problem I see with "if Manny opts out, we'll have extra cash to play with!" is the fact that the McCourts might just be thrilled to be off the hook for that $20m, and cut us down to an $80m payroll.

The other day, on Dodger Thoughts, I noticed that CanuckDodger compared Blake DeWitt to Chase Utley. I just noticed another point of comparison. They both use Led Zeppelin songs as their walk up music. DeWitt uses Immigrant Song, and Utley uses Kashmir.

Lidge Being Lidge.

Mike Scioscias tragic illness:

Say what you will about the Yanks and Phillies, but this series (Game 4's tied in the 9th as I write this) has been outstanding.

I can't believe a team made up of 4 pitchers is probably going to win the World Series, that's just not right.

SamAdams:

Yes, it is just wrong to need five capable starting pitchers in the regular season, and then only three in the postseason. It was even worse in the LCS when they threw in an additional day off to line up the tv schedule.

Got to give Johnny Damon some props for that heads up "double steal" last night. Of course, Lidge blew that by not covering third base. Light Up Lidge should all make us feel better about our closer situation (even though I'm still waking up thinking about that ninth inning in Game 4 of the NLCS.) Every closer in the postseason has had a meltdown inning except for Mariano Rivera. I still can't figure out how he has done it all these years, since he basically throws one pitch, a 91 mph cutter. It must be his pinpoint control or something.

I have repeatedly heard players say that they know exactly what's coming and where and it doesn't matter. Last pitcher I heard that about was Koufax.

This could get interesting.

This story definitely seems fishy to me. Why would we at all be interested in paying some of Manny's salary and shipping him off without a huge return?

I think this might have been leaked by Colletti & Co. to show Boras that there is a market for his services if he opts out.

Mike Scioscias tragic illness:

It's clearly Cleveland, but this isn't going to happen. Boras won't let Manny waive his no-trade without getting a big deal in return, and it doesn't make sense for the Dodgers to eat some more money just to have Pierre play LF.

I don't think anything will come of it, either. But it is an unexpected bit of information for people to speculate on. At least we'll find out by next Tuesday if he stays put. Thankfully the team won't be left swaying in the wind for months on end.

elysianpark62:

FWIW, Dylan Hernandez of the Times said that Colletti denied that rumor. The WS isn't even over yet, and Colletti is denying rumors. Here we go, Hot Stove!

That's because this WS is so hard to care about.

BlueMamma:

That's because this WS is so hard to care about.

Don't let toes hear you say that.