The Bill Shelley Memorial Farm Thread

grabarkewitz:

It will be very interesting when the CBA is renegotiated after the next season. I would not be surprised to see the Union and the Owners on the same page regarding slotting and a World Draft. I am also of the opinion that the trading of picks will be added only if the owners get something back. Free agent compensation should also be replaced by the system the NBA uses for first refusal, but that would likely add one more year of service time for a player and baseball has the most lengthy service time requirements of any of the major sports.

I think it highly likely that eliminating FA compensation (Type A at least & possibly B as well) will be the counterbalance to allowing for setting firm draft slot bonus figures. This would remove impediments to FAs changing teams, as the claiming team won't need to factor in loss of a high draft pic for signing a top FA - and theoretically leading to higher FA contract offers. This set-up would also save teams $ in 2 ways during the draft - they can't be held for ransom for a particular pic and won't be amassing any/as many pix for losing FAs. As such, teams would be able to set firm draft budgets in the middle range of waht teams spend now.

grabarkewitz:

It will be very interesting when the CBA is renegotiated after the next season. I would not be surprised to see the Union and the Owners on the same page regarding slotting and a World Draft. I am also of the opinion that the trading of picks will be added only if the owners get something back. Free agent compensation should also be replaced by the system the NBA uses for first refusal, but that would likely add one more year of service time for a player and baseball has the most lengthy service time requirements of any of the major sports.

I think free agent compensation is the carrot that the owners will use to get the slotting system for the draft. Draft pick compensation would have to be given up by the owners to induce the players to allow a slotting of bonuses by round for the draft.

I am not sure that trading draft picks will be of any benefit or detriment to the owners or players once a slotting system is in place, so I think the owners should be able to get that passed in the new CBA.

I think the instituting of the World Draft would be part of what the players give up to have draft pick compensation removed. I mean, if you think about it, the players not having to be hampered by their Type A or B status is a pretty significant thing. Right now, teams are able to rationalize asking for bigger trading packages from teams based on the concept that a player who is a Type A free agent can net that team 2 draft picks. And even Type B free agents have some of that problem. By removing the draft pick compensation, it truly allows all players to be free agents.

I agree that they may replace the last year of arb with restricted free agency a la the NBA where a team can make a qualifying offer to a restricted free agent, thereby guaranteeing them the right to match any contract offer made to that player with in 10 days after the offer has been made by another team.

I don't think they would add to the service time, just reduce the number of arb years by 1.

I, for one, will be glad once slotting takes place for the draft.

It will get us away from all these "signability" discussions that always come up.

Logan White is so right on (I guess that's why he's the draft guru that he is) about there being only a finite number of players each year that end up being major league level players and that throwing absurd signing bonuses around to high school kids is no likelier going to make a kid a major leaguer.

And some high upside kids will bomb and some kids who were unheralded become perrenial all-stars. There's no exact science to it. So why should the kids and their agents be allowed to ask for all these aggregiously-sized bonuses?!

I mean its no different than the NBA when they used to let high school kids enter the draft. For every LeBron, Kobe or KG, there were literally thousands of guys who thought they had what it took to play in the NBA out of high school who flopped miserably.

Its funny how high school kids with all this supposed "projection" can be viewed as "can't-miss" prospects.

I mean, especially in baseball, where fundamentals and refinement are SO important, a good DEVELOPMENT system is AS IMPORTANT as having a good scouting system.

I mean look at the Pirates. Look at all the highly rated arms they drafted that ended up having serious arm issues. Could it be that the Pirates' development system overworked those kids? Or maybe it was just that they got unlucky with those kids. In any event, it just goes to show what a crapshoot the draft is and, therefore, teams should not be forced to spend millions on kids who have a far greater likelihood of BUSTING versus actually being major league ball players.

Greji:

Easier said then done. Not trying to be funny, but who do you mean by "They Should"? The Japanese will not allow it. NPB (Japanese Pro Ball) even passed a new rule after the Dodgers signed Robert Boothe and the Red Sox signed Junichi Tazawa. Now, if any Japanese amateur refuses to enter the Japan Pro Baseball draft and signs "overseas", they are banned from entering organized baseball in Japan for two years following their return from the MLB (or where ever). Assuming a Japanese player plays in the states for a couple of years, that would be huge in stopping a career back at home in its tracks. This law may not standup in the courts in Japan, but it sure is a deterrent.

Also, since those two signing's there has been a lot of talk about limiting access of scouts from foreign teams in Japan although nothing has substantivally occurred as of yet. I don't think you can totally blame Japan for so decisively trying to protect their ball, but they do go a bit overboard. Also, the Koreans and Chinese might consider following that lead in the future as well.

While I think that Bud Lite would love to include Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese players, I am thinking this is more for players where there isn't a major league they can sign with. Even though Bud is a massive moron, I doubt he would step over the NPB or the KBO. I am figuring it will only include places like the Dominican, Venezuela, Australia, Europe, etc.... Still, this is Bud Lite and the MLB, stupidity falls from them like the leaves in autumn.

Die-Hard Dodger Fan:

Greji, regardless of what rules Japanese leagues (or any other leagues for that matter) have, MLB could institute a world draft where a players rights are owned by a team if they decide to come play in MLB.

As an example, the NBA's Minnesota Timberwolves drafted the Spainard Ricky Rubio, who is still under contract for Joventut, a team in Europe.

Now obviously the Timberwolves rights in Rubio only apply if he is eligible to come play in the NBA and decides to come to the U.S. and play.

Currently, the Timberwolves are trying to help Rubio negotiate a buyout so he can come play in the NBA.

So a MLB World Draft wouldn't mean that the MLB's draft rights supercede the ownership rights of any foreign teams. It just means that once a player is drafted in the MLB draft, his rights are owned by a particular MLB team. Now, if a Japanese player decides its better for his future to play in Japan, then that's fine. He can stay in Japan for as long as he likes, but once he comes to the MLB, he must first negotiate with the team that drafted him.

Therefore, if a team wanted Miguel Sano, the highly touted Dominican this year, all they would need to do is draft him and they have his rights.

That's a good description of how it would work drafting foreign players, although I would expect some sorta time limit on how long teams would hold such rights.

I'll tell ya though, drafting foreign players would be a wild crap shoot, really mixing up the current draft format. Of course, signing foreign players is a real crap shoot now, and can get very expensive. Mixing in foreign players in the amateur draft should lower the cost for the best foreign talents, but teams are gonna really struggle when trying to determine just where to slot the foreign guys in, as they are generally a lot further from the show.

I don't see how MLB can't include foreign players, as leaving them outside the draft selection process would just encourage the BoSox and Yanks to allocate that much more of their huge resources toward buying up foreign players to throw their weight around once they could no longer count on drafting signability US amateurs that slide in the draft.

kennerbuggy:

That's a good description of how it would work drafting foreign players, although I would expect some sorta time limit on how long teams would hold such rights.

I'll tell ya though, drafting foreign players would be a wild crap shoot, really mixing up the current draft format. Of course, signing foreign players is a real crap shoot now, and can get very expensive. Mixing in foreign players in the amateur draft should lower the cost for the best foreign talents, but teams are gonna really struggle when trying to determine just where to slot the foreign guys in, as they are generally a lot further from the show.

I don't see how MLB can't include foreign players, as leaving them outside the draft selection process would just encourage the BoSox and Yanks to allocate that much more of their huge resources toward buying up foreign players to throw their weight around once they could no longer count on drafting signability US amateurs that slide in the draft.

There has been some talk of extending the negotiating rights to high school players until they are 21, much like the NHL. In other words, the Dodgers draft some high school pitcher, but he chooses to attend Woebegone College, we would retain his rights until he turns 21 or leaves Woebegone and makes himself eligible for the next draft. This might do wonders for overpaying for high school talent.

BLUEFAN:

That would almost be akin to re-adopting the Draft and Follow (DNF) that was dropped from the draft a couple of years ago. I believe the Angels Jordan Walden (RHP) was one of, if not the last player signed under the old system.

That might be the carrot that gets this thing moving to a more workable draft. I always thought removing the DFA was a big mistake. There was no real reason to stop it, except for the lobbying of the agents. I believe both sides are in favor of a stronger slotting directive and the trading of draft picks (IMO) is a no brainer, so one would think that this issue is not going to be a dealbreaker.

Now on top of this, to give something back to the Players Union, I would do the following ....

1. Increase the MLB minimum player salary to .....

Year 1 - $500,000
Year 2 - $525,000
Year 3 - $550,000
Year 4 - $575,000
Year 5 - $600,000

This both gives the lower end "Union" players and better pay day now, but would probably lead to the maintaining and/or increase of the number of veterans giving roster spots over minor league (non-Union) players due to the cost.

2. Team Salary Minimum

Enforce a minimum amount that clubs have to spend on player salaries say at .... $40 million. Any team under that payroll floor would have to pay a penalty (at the end of the year) directly to the Players Association. It would be a dollar for dollar penalty. So if a team like the Marlins only had a payroll of $25 million, they would owe $15 million to the Players Union. Now what would be smarter for them, to pay a penalty to the PA or to sign a Free Agent or two who could help them compete.

3. Team Salary Maximum

I know this is the one that the Players Union will fight tooth and nail against but it has to be done to stay competitive. Set the max at say .... $100 million. Any team over the cap would have to pay a penalty to the league "pool" (as it does now) which would be split amongst the 30 clubs as part of the revenue sharing.

BLUEFAN:

My Draft Reform

I've heard a lot of good ideas, and here are mine ....

1. World Wide Draft or Cap Non-Draft Eligible bonus at about $250,000.

This would force guys some of these Dominican, Venezuelan, etc ... guys to declare themselves for the draft if they want, or believe they are worth more than the capped amount. It would also allow MLB the time to verify their information (name, age, etc ...) that is one of the biggest issues right now.

2. Free Agent Compensation

Don't get rid of it totally, just revise it to be similar to the what the NFL has. Each team keeps it's regular picks, but receives compensation picks between rounds based upon the rating of the player. In the case of MLB, say something like ....

Type A

1 - 1st Round Supplemental Pick
1 - 2nd Round Supplemental Pick

Type B

1 - 1st Round Supplemental Pick

Type C

1 - 2nd Round Supplemental Pick

* same rules would apply about offering arbitration to be eligible to receive comp picks

3. Enforced Slotting

Now I am not saying not to pay these guys at all, but some of these bonus' are becoming ridiculous ...

* I'll come up with a reasonable (IMO) chart and post it later

4. Trading Draft Picks

This would make the draft a lot more interesting for fans, allow clubs to include draft picks (instead of/or including players off their minor league roster) in trades.

There would have to be a deadline prior to the draft as a cut off, i.e. no trading picks during the draft, but instead of teams having to wait 6 months to deal drafted/signed players, they could be dealt after 30 days.

Trading of picks would only be allowed through the 10th Round.

I doubt we would see anything near this broad in relation to FA compensation, as the vet players will want the most $ possible going to them as opposed to unproven kids, and a key aspect of such compensation is "up slotting" some kid into a supplemental round to put a team higher in the pecking order, and likely a higher pay grade for the draftee. As such, the vets will probably prefer no extra slot category, like a supplemental round, in addition to no disincentive to FA signings or incentives to FA losses. The vets would prefer a team like the Brew-hahs offer more to keep a FA than just counting on snagging an extra pic or two with their pile of available $ by letting the FA walk.

At most I would see the current Type B compensation as the max for a smaller % of players who qualify as Type As in the future, i.e., the losing club gaining a single pick in a supplemental round between the 1st and 2nd rds for losing a player ranked in the top 10-15% of all players at his position. Type C was eliminated at the last revision to the FA compensation criteria.

Understand, that the current system has been jobbed by the teams as well. I think many teams would like to do away with a system that snags them lots of extra draft pix in some years if they would be precluded from signing pix for well under slot as they can now. Most often teams spread around the same amount of total $ to more pix when they end up with extra pix prior to the end of the 2nd rd. The Putrids signed like 5 top 50 selections for just a few $M a few years ago. Under firm slotting they would be forced to spend several $M on that many high pix in the future. Teams want to save money under firm slotting, not spend more than they have in the past. Teams that spend the most in the draft now largely don't so due to extra pix, they do so due to selecting and paying signability guys that fall out of the top rounds, i.e., more $ to a fixed number of draftees as opposed to more draftees.

MWL All-Stars

CA Tony DelMonico
SS Dee Gordon
RF Kyle Russell

- Dee Gordon was also named MWL "Player of the Year". He is the 2nd Dodger farmhand (Kershaw) to win that honor.

- SS Dee Gordon and RF Kyle Russell were named CO-MVP's of the MWL

BLUEFAN:

AFL Roster are out and the Dodger prospect on the Peoria Javelinas are ....

RH Javier Guerra
RH Eric Krebs
RH Travis Schlicting
?? TBA

CA Lucas May

IN Russell Mitchell
IN Justin Sellers (Taxi Squad)

OF Andrew Lambo
OF Trayvon Robinson

I am betting the TBA will either be Josh Wall or Matthew Sartor because we are approaching the point where we have to decide to keep them or expose them to the Rule V.

Much better day on the farm. Kyle Russell had a bomb and four ribs - he is up to 26 homers and 94 rbis. He really should be playing for the Lookouts, right now. I know some of us are crowing for Andrew Lambo, but his numbers have been fairly pedestrian this year. .250/.311/.458. Not exactly an upgrade over Loney. Sure, he has 38 doubles and he quite talented, but he is still a long way from LA. The first move would be to move him back to first base and groom either Robinson for centerfield or move Kyle Russell up the ladder, quicker.

Lastly, the Blue sent Mario Songco back to Ogden. He struggled mightily in Great Lakes and he may have been rushed, a bit. Right now, job one should be getting Dee Gordon, JT Wise, Kyle Russell, Lambo and Withrow to the show ASAP.

grabarkewitz:

I am surprised that Jon Michael Redding or Jaime Pedroza didn't get a nod.

When looking at the other players who made the all-star team, I'm not. While Redding has the wins, his ERA and peripherals are not very good when compared to the other pitchers selected as all-stars.

BLUEFAN:

With Loney's struggles, I agree with moving Lambo back to 1B. At the very least have him split time between 1B and LF to keep his comfortable with both positions.

Also, don't forget that Lambo is only 20 years old. He has had an excellent season for someone so young in AA and doing it most of the year without a lot of offensive back up either. The 38 doubles are a good sign for future power potential. While his hitting (average) is down this year, his strikeout rate is down. Another good sign of future performance.

IIRC Lambo was considered nearly as defensively skilled as Loney, at first base coming out of high school. Moving him to a corner outfield was more a move of necessity rather than skills. The 38 doubles is a good sign, but I would hate to rush the kid to the show, at this time. I have read where Chattanooga is a pitcher's park, so I would love to see what Lambo could do at a hitter's park. Last year, he was at Great Lakes, another pitcher's park and league, so his power has been negated by being very young in each league and being placed in leagues where pitching is king. I would like to think that the original assessment that he has 25-30 homer power is something that can be realized.

BLUEFAN:

His skills at 1B are pretty good. In limited time (22 Games) he has a career .994 FLD%, making only 1 error.

Some other items that show very good promise for Lambo in the future.

2008 (A/AA) vs. 2009 (AA)

2008 131 508 65 150 35 3 18 91 43 119 5 2 .295 .351 .482 .833 7.73% 23.4% .356
2009 119 452 66 116 38 1 11 55 36 087 2 3 .257 .311 .418 .729 7.24% 19.3% .297

YR AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS BB% SO% BABIP

Note that though his peripherals look a little ugly (.257/.311/.418/.729) he has been extremely unlucky (.297 BABIP), even though his BB% has remained roughly the same, while his K% has decreased, all against tougher competition as a 20 year old. He has 38 doubles this year, after slugging 35 last year, but in 56 less AB.

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Monthly Splits

A 21 084 .321 .383 .548 .931
M 27 103 .223 .270 .320 .591
J 26 102 .265 .330 .441 .772
J 26 098 .265 .306 .408 .714
A 19 065 .200 .260 .385 .645

He had a huge April, a lousy May and then leveled off in June and July before falling flat again in August. His poor August came directly after Josh Bell (his only protection in the line-up) had been traded to Baltimore for George Sherrill.

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Other Splits

LHP 144 .292 .338 .451 .789
RHP 308 .240 .299 .403 .702

His numbers against LHP are very solid. Usually this is the opposite with young (and even some older) left handed hitters and is a good sign for future production.

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Loney vs. Lambo at 20 Comp

JL 2004 JAX (AA) 104 395 39 094 19 2 04 35 42 75 6 5 .238 .314 .327 .641
AL 2009 CHA (AA) 119 452 66 116 38 1 11 55 36 87 2 3.257 .311 .418 .729

Statistical information provided by Milb.com and Fangraphs.com

I saw his lefthanded splits, this morning and was quite impressed. I am for upping his ETA to September of 2010 as opposed to a year later. Of course, the ball is in the Dodgers' court on how to move on this.

Another note on something completely different - Japanese high school lefty, Yusei Kikuchi, - who the Dodgers were after - has decided to stay in Japan and not follow the path of Junichi Tazawa.