The Bill Shelley Memorial Farm Thread
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Good morning all, as camp opens it is only right that we honor probably the finest authourity on the Dodgers' farm system and players therein. Bill left us recently and this little monument is just a small thank you for all the hard work he did in building up our kids.
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... brought to you by that masterful curator of prospects, Old McTorgy.
Another fine thread ready to be flooded with knowledge! -
I still liked "The Carl's Jr. Bill Shelley Memorial Farm Thread, brought to you by Torgy."
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Yeah, but Karcher's last check bounced, so I am looking for a new sponsor. Might give Wingstop a chance to sponsor this thread. Either them or Wienerschnitzel.
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I still liked "The Carl's Jr. Bill Shelley Memorial Farm Thread, brought to you by Torgy."... via the On-Star hotline...Mike Scioscias tragic illness: -
A very exciting article in Baseball America that ranks the Dodgers #1 overall on a list. A list of what? Go there and find out. Be sure and read the last few paragraphs. You pair this with the overall quality of our farm and this could be a great year for us.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=754 -
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A very exciting article in Baseball America that ranks the Dodgers #1 overall on a list. A list of what? Go there and find out. Be sure and read the last few paragraphs. You pair this with the overall quality of our farm and this could be a great year for us.TheSleaze:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=754
That's pretty cool. It's a decent tool, but like he admits, it neglects to take into account the relative strength of each prospect or each team's pool of top ten prospects. It just gives an number that takes into account intra-organizational prospect ranking and proximity to the majors.
It seems like this tool would be more effective as a sidebar, coupled with the organizational rankings. Like the Dodgers are ranked 5th overall in talent, but their group is #1 closest to contributing. -
Interesting note from an article on Dodgers.com ...
Light-tower power: One player the organization is eager to see develop is Franklin Jacobs, a right-handed hitting first baseman from North Carolina. He's 19, 6-5 and 260 pounds and, according to assistant general manager Logan White, "Has ungodly power."
Jacobs was a 17th round pick in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft who gave up football and basketball to pursue a professional baseball career. He hit .250 with two homers in 96 at-bats last year in the Gulf Coast League.
When Logan speaks, I listen. Anyone got the skinny (hah!) on this guy?
Ungodly power ... mmmmmm.
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080222&content_id=2384533&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=la -
A lot of people say he could be a right-handed Ryan Howard or Jim Thome, but I think it's simply because of his build at this point. He's so far down in his development that I don't think a comparison like that is fair. As of now, raw power is really the only skill Jacobs shows. If we can get him to harness that, there's obviously the potential for a great slugger in there. But he's in the same boat as Kyle Orr is in now; he has to learn how to hit.
We actually have three quality first base prospects that were all in rookie ball last season. Jamie Ortiz, Kyle Orr & Franklin Jacobs. I'm hoping that Ortiz will start the year with the Loons while Orr & Jacobs will be able to split up between the Raptors and the Coasties so they can both play full-time. At the bottom of the system, there's no other position that has more talent than first base, which is strange considering how few power prospects we're used to having. -
I was scanning thru the BA and Sickels prospect handbooks, and started to look over the top prospects of the Rays, BoSox, Strangers, Yanks and Dodgers to see how the other 4 clubs are stronger than the Dodgers. It is really obvious to me with the Rays and Strangers, but I just don't see it with the BoSox & Yanks.
The thing with the Strangers is that there seems to be a steep drop off after the first dozen or so, but they seem to be 2nd to only the Rays in terms of the top dozen. And I just don't see how the BoSox & Yanks came from nowhere to top 5 30 deep systems in only 2 years. In other words, they seem to be getting every benefit of the doubt with their talented young players that haven't established themselves much yet.
There also seems to be some "coloration" with the recent success the BoSox and Yanks have had with kids that have graduated, like Papelbo, Pedroia, Hughes, Cano, etc., that increases the expectation that the next group of guys will do well too, but the Dodgers and Rox don't seem to be getting such credit. There also seems to be some coloration with how much the names of individual players came up in recent trade talks.
One example I can point to is Jed Lowrie vs. Chin-lung Hu:
* BA rates Lowrie at the BoSox 5th best prospect and Hu as the Dodgers 3rd best, while indicating Lowrie is the better player (primarily in analysis in various bits on their website). Sickles rates Lowrie as an A-, and Hu as a B. The general analysis is that Lowrie is a good hitter who may be able to play SS in the bigs, but his bat will allow him to play somewhere else, like 2B or 3B; while Hu can definately play big league SS and is a likely GG contender, but his 'D' is his big strength and should allow him to play with a so-so bat.
* Both are SSs and 6'-0" tall; Lowrie is listed at 180 lbs and Hu at 165 lbs. Hu turned 24 at the start of Feb, and Lowrie turns 24 in mid April. Lowrie is a switch hitter, Hu bats RH.
* Both spent about 1/3 of last season in AAA and 2/3 in AA, and Hu got a taste of the bigs in Sept. So, they are pretty much at the same spot at the same age. Both are blocked right now by an established SS in the bigs. Lowrie is also blocked for the foreseeable future at 2B by Pedroia. Either or both of SS and 2B could open for Hu in 2009.
* Both had poor offensive seasons in 2006 in AA. Sickels notes that Lowrie had injury problems, but doesn't note Hu's eye problems from that year. BA doesn't mention injury issues for either in 2006. BA does indicate that each player improved his approach, plate awareness, etc. Except for 2006, both players have had a BA .297 or higher in every other minor league season.
So, lets look at the comparable stats (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS):
2006 - AA
Lowrie - .262/.352/.374/.726
Hu ... - .254/.326/.334/.660
Nothing to write home about with either guy, but Hu had the poorer year offensively.
To be continued ........ -
2007 - AA
Lowrie - .297/.410/.501/.911 (337 ABs)
Hu ... - .329/.380/.508/.888 (325 ABs)
Boy, they both got it together their 2nd year in AA. This now gets too close to call IMO. Figuring in park/league effects could make the difference larger or neglible, I don't know either way. I have heard Jax is a hitter's park in a pitcher's league, but I don't know anything about Portland in the Eastern League.
2007 - AAA
Lowrie - .300/.356/.506/.862 (160 ABs)
Hu ... - .318/.337/.505/.842 (192 ABs)
More of the same. The only difference between AA & AAA for both guys seems to be a decline in OBP, while maintaining much the same BA (contact rate) and SLG (XBH rate). So, the only significant change was that BA to OBP spread dropped for both as they saw pitchers with better control, i.e., fewer walks. Also, note that Hu had more ABs at both levels, as well as compiling 29 in the Show, ending up with about 150 more than Lowrie. I know Vegas is a hitter's park in a hitter's league, but again I don't know about Pawtucket in the International League.
It should also be noted that Lowrie had 13 HRs between the two levels in 07, and Hu had 14 (in more ABs). Hu also hit 2 in the bigs - where he also maintained that .500 OPS ( in very limited ABs).
In looking over these two years of stats, covering two minor league levels, the only significant difference between the two seems to be that Lowrie is able to carry a larger BA to OBP split, which seems to be a major factor with many stats-minded observers. It is generally assumed that "the split" indicates quality of plate awareness and is carried forward as the player advances up the levels. While I think that is true, I think it is also true that in the vast majority of cases the split range decreases as the quaility of pitching increases. Both Lowrie's and Hu's stats would seem to indicate that. And conversely, I don't think slippage in BA and SLG as a player climbs the ladder is as dramatic and as frequent as some stat-heads make it out to be.
This "split" aspect is what seems to have "marked-down" many of our prospects in the past, as some pundits seem to rigidly adhere to the belief that a hitter will not be able to maintain a high BA and/or SLG as he progresses up the ladder. Turtle is starting to get some credit, gudgingly, but Loney & Kemp are still seen as questionable contributors, while a guy like Pedroia is seen as established.
Sorry, but I can't look at the profile and stats for Lowrie and Hu, and see Lowrie as an A- and Hu as a B. They seem awfully close to me offensively, and Hu's glove at a critical defensive position would seem to tilt the balance toward him.
However, Lowrie was in lots of trade talk this off-season, while Hu wasn't. That this might have been due to the BoSox offering LOwrie around as he is blocked in the bigs at his best positions doesn't seem to be getting factored in. I can pretty much guarantee you that Hu is as good defensively as any minor league SS, and is at least as good a hitter, as measured statistically, as any other SS that is thought to be good or better defensively, but there are a few minor league SS rated significantly higher. Why? -
Sickels has had to defend that Lowrie rating because it has been widely criticized, and his basic defense is that it's gut-feel. Ratings are very subjective, so I can certainly understand that defense in some regards, however I agree with you that it's a ridiculously large difference between an A- and a B. I would probably attribute the lack of major league success for any Taiwanese position players as a major factor in that rating. While that is unfair on so many levels, it does undoubtably work it's way into the equation. Now, that being said, Lowrie has had better statistics at every level so he should be higher than Hu, but A- to B+ would be more appropriate in my estimation.
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Sickels has had to defend that Lowrie rating because it has been widely criticized, and his basic defense is that it's gut-feel. Ratings are very subjective, so I can certainly understand that defense in some regards, however I agree with you that it's a ridiculously large difference between an A- and a B. I would probably attribute the lack of major league success for any Taiwanese position players as a major factor in that rating. While that is unfair on so many levels, it does undoubtably work it's way into the equation. Now, that being said, Lowrie has had better statistics at every level so he should be higher than Hu, but A- to B+ would be more appropriate in my estimation.TBoneShelby:
You would be right TBone, if there wasn't a difference defensively, which there is. Hu is GG potential; Lowrie may be moved elsewhere. I'm with KB; Hu's an A-/B+ while Lowrie is more B+. Both real good, but Hu slightly better. And it's no surprise that folks can't get past their Yankee/Red Sox love. When all they hear from the major sports network is everything about those two organizations, they fall into the same trap. At some point, the national media may actually figure out that the rest of the world isn't living just to please the east coast. I doubt it, but it could happen. -
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Sickels has had to defend that Lowrie rating because it has been widely criticized, and his basic defense is that it's gut-feel. Ratings are very subjective, so I can certainly understand that defense in some regards, however I agree with you that it's a ridiculously large difference between an A- and a B. I would probably attribute the lack of major league success for any Taiwanese position players as a major factor in that rating. While that is unfair on so many levels, it does undoubtably work it's way into the equation. Now, that being said, Lowrie has had better statistics at every level so he should be higher than Hu, but A- to B+ would be more appropriate in my estimation.TBoneShelby:
That's one thing about Sickels that I like - having a "gut feel", and also admitting it. He had a gut feel about Hu a year ago.
I would also hope that John has more park & league factor information than I do. However, on balance in comparison to other club's systems the Dodger hitters play in about as many pitcher's parks/leagues as any other club's players, and I doubt that ALL the BoSox parks and leagues benefit the pitchers more. There are a lot of altitude factors out west in the Cal League and PCL, but that factor only applies to CO in the bigs, while most MLB band boxes are in the NE. Assuming that also to be the case in the minors, there should be hitter's parks and leagues in the minor leagues located in the NE - meaning it is likely that there is not a big divergence in park or league effects between the minor league careers of Lowrie & Hu.
Lastly, IMHO defense is the hardest aspect to evaluate statistically. So, I tend to base that on what I see with my own eyes. I have seen Hu play, and what I saw was a great defensive SS. I have also seen numerous scouting reports that are raves, and few if any reports that he is anything but a great SS. Meanwhile, the scouting reports on Lowrie's 'D vary from "not a big league SS" to "having the tools to be a marginal big league SS".
I think John might be guilty of evaluating Lowrie's offensive skills highly because he is a SS. If Lowrie put up much the same numbers as a 2B he might not be rated as highly. Then when you factor in that Lowrie is likely a big league 2B, not SS, while Hu is DEFINATELY a big league SS, this big evaluation difference starts to get real questionable.
I mean how many minor league catchers were rated more highly than Turtle based on their bats, and how many of those guys are no longer catchers, while Turtle won every NL catcher award last season? Wasn't BJ Upton a great hitting SS, and then a great hitting CF, and now a great hitting LF? I just think many pundits fall too much in love with great offensive stats for minor leaguers playing critical defensive positions, when those guys are at best marginal at those positons in the minors. Then when they move to 2B or LF they become much less distinctive. IMHO - you just can't look at a minor league SS or CF that doesn't have VG or better defensive skills as a major leaguer at those positions, and furthermore give them extra credit for putting up VG offensive stats for players at those positions in the minors.
My main point, which I didn't get to earlier, is that one aspect that provides "evidence" that the BoSox currently have a much stronger minor league system than the Dodgers is that they have a better SS prospect rated lower on their team rating. However, looking at these two best SS prospects closely seems to indicate a flaw in that analysis. Their team rating may be reasonable, but their direct comparison does not seem reasonable. If I wanted either a SS or 2B i would rate them about the same, perhaps giving a slight advantage to Lowrie without having more data, but if it comes to needing a SS, it is Hu hands down. And i just don't see how anyone can ignore how big a difference that is in relative value.
Perhaps Sickels is on to something, but for the rare exception I would bet against him in this case. -
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[quote]ceyheyjay:
Sickels has had to defend that Lowrie rating because it has been widely criticized, and his basic defense is that it's gut-feel. Ratings are very subjective, so I can certainly understand that defense in some regards, however I agree with you that it's a ridiculously large difference between an A- and a B. I would probably attribute the lack of major league success for any Taiwanese position players as a major factor in that rating. While that is unfair on so many levels, it does undoubtably work it's way into the equation. Now, that being said, Lowrie has had better statistics at every level so he should be higher than Hu, but A- to B+ would be more appropriate in my estimation.TBoneShelby:
You would be right TBone, if there wasn't a difference defensively, which there is. Hu is GG potential; Lowrie may be moved elsewhere. I'm with KB; Hu's an A-/B+ while Lowrie is more B+. Both real good, but Hu slightly better. And it's no surprise that folks can't get past their Yankee/Red Sox love. When all they hear from the major sports network is everything about those two organizations, they fall into the same trap. At some point, the national media may actually figure out that the rest of the world isn't living just to please the east coast. I doubt it, but it could happen.
You hit on one of my main points - the impact of defensive skills/tools on a player's overall value is much greater for a catcher, SS, CF and 3B than for the other 4 positions. Hanley Ramirez arguably had the best offensive stats for any MLB SS last season, but it is probably true that Hanley is not really a MLB SS, as his range is so-so and he makes lots of errors. On balance, I would rather have Tulo with the Rox at SS, despite Tulo putting up lesser offensive stats in a much more hitter friendly environment (Coors as compared to the park in Miami).
My highly personal, subjective evaluation would be much like yours - Hu at A- and Lowrie at B+. Hu might be a B as a MLB SS, while Lowrie could be an A as a MLB 2B, but the relative importance of SS compared to 2B is most pronounced. For Lowrie to prove to be a more important MLB player he will either have to prove to be a much better defensive player than indicated, or greatly outhit Hu - which he hasn't up to now. A spread of 20 OPS points is not a significant difference.
Lastly to tie-in with your other point: one aspect that added to the Hanley vs. Tulo hype is that Hanley came out of the BoSox system and was a key part of the Beckett trade a couple of years ago. Tulo might not have gotten any national attention had the Rox not made that run to the WS - greatly aided by Tulo I might add. -
I like Sickels' open admission that he uses gut feel as well. For conversation sake, here is his latest rating of Lowrie, as well as his explanation of said rating:
Jed Lowrie had a mediocre '06 season in the Carolina League, but he was injured much of the time. Fully healthy in '07, he rebounded with an excellent campaign in Double-A and Triple-A, posting +24 OPS and and +18 OPS respectively. He has good power for a middle infielder, and 47 doubles indicates that more could be on the way. He has excellent strike zone judgment, and aside from his injury-plagued season at Wilmington, he's hit for a high average in pro ball. He also looked better defensively in '07, showing enough range for shortstop. The Red Sox are very high on him, and other teams have asked about him in trades. I think he is one of the best prospects in baseball.Grade A-.
I can see the case to make him a Grade B+. He turns 24 in April, and there are still some questions about his range at shortstop. The comment assumes that the Red Sox are right about him being able to remain at short. But on the other hand, the points I make in the comment remain valid. He does have a shot at increasing his power beyond where it is. He's been a very productive hitter at every stop, except when he was injured in 2006. I love his combination of strike zone judgment and pop. He's also fundamentally sound, intelligent, and has good "make-up," hard attributes to measure but there nonetheless.
Here's the deal though. At one point I almost changed him to Grade B+. But something held me back. This isn't scientific, of course, but my instincts say to leave him at A-, that he's got a chance to be better than even the optimists expect right now. Sometimes such gut feelings can lead us astray, of course, but I also think that such feelings are often due to pattern recognition working on a subconscious level.
We will revisit this as the year progresses, and if I'm wrong I will certainly owe up to it. But there is something here triggering my "stick with the original grade" feeling, and that's what I'm going to do. -
Thanks TBone for the re-print.
Here's one rub when comparing Hu to Lowrie, who John says has emerging power:
* Lowrie had 13 HRs and 47 2Bs over 2 levels in 07. Hu? How about 14 and 40. Lowrie had 8 3Bs and Hu 6. So, Lowrie had 9 more 2Bs/3Bs and that makes him a significantly better bet power-wise?
* Over the past 3 seasons, including the off 2006 for both, Lowrie had 16 HRs, 14 3Bs & 80 2Bs; while Hu had 27 HRs, 9 3Bs & 89 2Bs. So, Lowrie may have had a break-out 2007 power-wise, or it could just have been one of those years. Perhaps he played in parks more generous in allowing 2Bs & 3B, while Hu played in parks that allow more HRs.
I just don't see enough to warrant not ranking these guys close offensively, and then giving Hu the nod because of his defense.
What does Johm say about Hu -
"Hu has always been renowned for his excellent glovework, but last year he added impressive hitting to the pakage. Long established as a line drive contact hitter, he added some muscle last season. As a result, he drove the ball more readily, occasionally over the fences. While he isn't a walk machine, scouts say he worked counts more effectively and was less liable to chase the pitches than in the past. His defense remains excellent, with Gold Glove potential if he hits enough to play regularly. (Emphasis added.) Was the hitting spark a fluke? At age 23, he young enough for it to be real. I don't like the way his walk rate went down at Vegas, but his strikeouts remained under control. There is some concern that the power increase could result in bad habits, if Hu tries to too hard to swing for the fences. My opinion is that Hu made some real progress, enough that he can hit enough to play regulalry, but that he will never be a huge offensive machine. But if he can hit .270-.280, with a good contact rate, 25-30 doubles, 10-15 steals, and Gold Gloce defense, someone will find a sopt for him."
Again - look over the remarkably similar stats I posted above (taken from Sickels book) and then read the two markedly different write-ups. Lowrie's jump in power means he broke out, while Hu's jump in power means he is over-swinging? Hu's drop in walk rate is disturbing, although his K rate declined as well and is half of what Lowrie's is - and that means Hu is over-swinging? Lowrie looks to be an offenseive force, but maybe Hu can hit enough to hold a SS gig because he fields so well? -
It's almost as if Sickles is marking down Hu's hitting because he is such a good fielder. Hu hits about the same rate of XBHs while striking out half as often as Lowrie, but Lowrie walks twice as much as does Hu, so that means Hu is swinging for the fences, while Lowrie is more selective? To me it means that Lowrie takes more farging pitches, and draws more walks, Hu swings at more and makes more contact.
Based on what I see, Lowrie's likely MLB line might be .275-.285 BA, .350+ OBP and .450+ SLG; and Hu's would likely be .285-.296 BA, .333-.350 OBP and .450+ SLG. Lowrie will be an adequate 2B, and Hu will be a GG SS. And John Sickels is wearing blinders in this comparison. -
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It's almost as if Sickles is marking down Hu's hitting because he is such a good fielder. Hu hits about the same rate of XBHs while striking out half as often as Lowrie, but Lowrie walks twice as much as does Hu, so that means Hu is swinging for the fences, while Lowrie is more selective? To me it means that Lowrie takes more farging pitches, and draws more walks, Hu swings at more and makes more contact.kennerbuggy:
Based on what I see, Lowrie's likely MLB line might be .275-.285 BA, .350+ OBP and .450+ SLG; and Hu's would likely be .285-.296 BA, .333-.350 OBP and .450+ SLG. Lowrie will be an adequate 2B, and Hu will be a GG SS. And John Sickels is wearing blinders in this comparison.
He certainly seems dead set on pigeon holing Hu as an Izturiz type of SS. Well, that's fine, we all know that he can rake and we will get to enjoy his talent while Lowrie is dealt mid season for a part. -
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It's almost as if Sickles is marking down Hu's hitting because he is such a good fielder. Hu hits about the same rate of XBHs while striking out half as often as Lowrie, but Lowrie walks twice as much as does Hu, so that means Hu is swinging for the fences, while Lowrie is more selective? To me it means that Lowrie takes more farging pitches, and draws more walks, Hu swings at more and makes more contact.kennerbuggy:
Based on what I see, Lowrie's likely MLB line might be .275-.285 BA, .350+ OBP and .450+ SLG; and Hu's would likely be .285-.296 BA, .333-.350 OBP and .450+ SLG. Lowrie will be an adequate 2B, and Hu will be a GG SS. And John Sickels is wearing blinders in this comparison.
geez KB... i dont want to rain on your parade, and you have obviusly put a lot of thought and work into this analysis, and you make some very valid points...
but predicting Hu to have a 450+ SLG and a 60 Point BA-OBP spread?
thats a little much dont you think? i mean, sickels may be wearing blinders and not giving Hu enough Credit, but dontcha think you are wearing blue colored glasses just a little on that prediction?
i hate to just pick one thing out of a really well thought out analysis and ignore the rest, because i hate when others do it to me, but i really do agree with most of what you said, but i think that your expectations of Hu are overly optimistic, personally i see him as Izzy with a little more power, and by that i mean power in the .390-.410 range.
the PCL skews power stats so bad that you almost cant even look at them when comparing players, and if you do look at power stats it would be for red flags of power outages to come in the majors, when i evaluate PCL hitters (and this is purely personal opinion and style.. i dont have a blog or a prospect book so take this for what its worth...) i look almost exclusevly at plate discipline and BA-OBP spread. which is a red flag in Hu's case. his K/BB ratio is fine, maybe a little to Pierre-esque for my taste, but that kind of player can have success too, especially with a good glove, but his BA/OBP split is really worrying. all it means is that he's waking a razor's edge of productivity, if his BA takes even a 30 point hit transitioning from AAA to ML we are looking at .288/.307
the point i am trying to make is that although Hu had a breakout year last year, there are some underlying red flags that could predicate a regression on the major league level. maybe i am just going with my gut too, and maybe i am overly hard on Dodgers prospects because i dont want to be afflicted with chronic homer-ism, like jay, who is going to be rooting for Miller long after his arm falls off
really I see Hu as Pierre with great D at SS and without the SBs, or Izzy with more pop
Like I said, Im not trying to say that Sickels rating is dead on, but cut the guy a little slack, he has said it is a gut feeling that he gave Lowrie an A- instead of a B+, and really whats the difference between half a grade? maybe he is undervaluing Hu, but isnt it possible that we are over valuing him just a little bit? -
Now wait just a cotton-pickin' minute here! Sure, I'll be rooting for Greg Miller until he retires, but I'm usually realistic on where he's at! I even last year said that he should have been traded to give him a new start somewhere else!
Don't mean to pick on one thing in your post, Sonny. I agree with everything else you said.:wink: -
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[quote]CarolinaBlues:
It's almost as if Sickles is marking down Hu's hitting because he is such a good fielder. Hu hits about the same rate of XBHs while striking out half as often as Lowrie, but Lowrie walks twice as much as does Hu, so that means Hu is swinging for the fences, while Lowrie is more selective? To me it means that Lowrie takes more farging pitches, and draws more walks, Hu swings at more and makes more contact.kennerbuggy:
Based on what I see, Lowrie's likely MLB line might be .275-.285 BA, .350+ OBP and .450+ SLG; and Hu's would likely be .285-.296 BA, .333-.350 OBP and .450+ SLG. Lowrie will be an adequate 2B, and Hu will be a GG SS. And John Sickels is wearing blinders in this comparison.
geez KB... i dont want to rain on your parade, and you have obviusly put a lot of thought and work into this analysis, and you make some very valid points...
but predicting Hu to have a 450+ SLG and a 60 Point BA-OBP spread?
thats a little much dont you think? i mean, sickels may be wearing blinders and not giving Hu enough Credit, but dontcha think you are wearing blue colored glasses just a little on that prediction?
i hate to just pick one thing out of a really well thought out analysis and ignore the rest, because i hate when others do it to me, but i really do agree with most of what you said, but i think that your expectations of Hu are overly optimistic, personally i see him as Izzy with a little more power, and by that i mean power in the .390-.410 range.
the PCL skews power stats so bad that you almost cant even look at them when comparing players, and if you do look at power stats it would be for red flags of power outages to come in the majors, when i evaluate PCL hitters (and this is purely personal opinion and style.. i dont have a blog or a prospect book so take this for what its worth...) i look almost exclusevly at plate discipline and BA-OBP spread. which is a red flag in Hu's case. his K/BB ratio is fine, maybe a little to Pierre-esque for my taste, but that kind of player can have success too, especially with a good glove, but his BA/OBP split is really worrying. all it means is that he's waking a razor's edge of productivity, if his BA takes even a 30 point hit transitioning from AAA to ML we are looking at .288/.307
the point i am trying to make is that although Hu had a breakout year last year, there are some underlying red flags that could predicate a regression on the major league level. maybe i am just going with my gut too, and maybe i am overly hard on Dodgers prospects because i dont want to be afflicted with chronic homer-ism, like jay, who is going to be rooting for Miller long after his arm falls off
really I see Hu as Pierre with great D at SS and without the SBs, or Izzy with more pop
Like I said, Im not trying to say that Sickels rating is dead on, but cut the guy a little slack, he has said it is a gut feeling that he gave Lowrie an A- instead of a B+, and really whats the difference between half a grade? maybe he is undervaluing Hu, but isnt it possible that we are over valuing him just a little bit?
Two things ... Hu SLGd over 500 in AA, a pitcher friendly league so it's difficult to blame the entire offensive uptick on the PCL. Also, I think KB was arguing that both Lowrie and Hu are most likely B+ prospects .... so why did Lowrie get the benefit of the doubt and receive a "gut-call" half-grade positive adjustment, yet Hu received quite the opposite. That "gut-call" resulted in Lowrie being ranked significantly higher than Hu and the stats don't support it. -
[quote]CarolinaBlues:
geez KB... i dont want to rain on your parade, and you have obviusly put a lot of thought and work into this analysis, and you make some very valid points...
but predicting Hu to have a 450+ SLG and a 60 Point BA-OBP spread?
thats a little much dont you think? i mean, sickels may be wearing blinders and not giving Hu enough Credit, but dontcha think you are wearing blue colored glasses just a little on that prediction?
i hate to just pick one thing out of a really well thought out analysis and ignore the rest, because i hate when others do it to me, but i really do agree with most of what you said, but i think that your expectations of Hu are overly optimistic, personally i see him as Izzy with a little more power, and by that i mean power in the .390-.410 range.
the PCL skews power stats so bad that you almost cant even look at them when comparing players, and if you do look at power stats it would be for red flags of power outages to come in the majors, when i evaluate PCL hitters (and this is purely personal opinion and style.. i dont have a blog or a prospect book so take this for what its worth...) i look almost exclusevly at plate discipline and BA-OBP spread. which is a red flag in Hu's case. his K/BB ratio is fine, maybe a little to Pierre-esque for my taste, but that kind of player can have success too, especially with a good glove, but his BA/OBP split is really worrying. all it means is that he's waking a razor's edge of productivity, if his BA takes even a 30 point hit transitioning from AAA to ML we are looking at .288/.307
the point i am trying to make is that although Hu had a breakout year last year, there are some underlying red flags that could predicate a regression on the major league level. maybe i am just going with my gut too, and maybe i am overly hard on Dodgers prospects because i dont want to be afflicted with chronic homer-ism, like jay, who is going to be rooting for Miller long after his arm falls off
really I see Hu as Pierre with great D at SS and without the SBs, or Izzy with more pop
Like I said, Im not trying to say that Sickels rating is dead on, but cut the guy a little slack, he has said it is a gut feeling that he gave Lowrie an A- instead of a B+, and really whats the difference between half a grade? maybe he is undervaluing Hu, but isnt it possible that we are over valuing him just a little bit?
Good analysis Corey, but I didn't exactly indicate that Hu would have a .60 BA to OBP spread. I gave ranges for both BA nd OBP, and at best Hu would end up with a .60 spread, at worst a .35 or so spread. I also provided a BA range and OBP of .350+ for Lowrie, which means I see his spread as being at least .65. Note that Lowrie's BA to OBP spread in AAA was .56, and Hu's was .19.
You may be right about Hu not being able to maintain a SLG above .410 in the bigs, but what about Lowrie? Do you think Lowrie is likely to put up a SLG higer than .410 in the bigs. If so, why? I certainly don't think a high BB/PA rate is a good indicator of SLG in the bigs.
You focused on Hu with your analysis while ignoring Lowrie. Why ? The comparison was my point. Fact is, they have comparable K/BB rates, the differerence being that Lowrie walks AND strikes out far more frequently than does Hu (at like 15% and 18% as compared to 6% and 8%). So, it may come down to whether one thinks a high walk rate is a better indicator of MLB success than a high contact/low K rate.
So, I guess the best way to summarize is that MY gut feel is that Hu will be the player that makes the higher impact in the bigs, largely due to Hu being a GG at the most critical defensive postion on the field (SS), while Lowrie is destined to be adequate at a position of lesser importance (2B), and neither is likely to be other than a bottom of the order hitter. Lowrie's much better BA to OBP spread makes him a far better option than Hu to hit lead-off, but that doesn't make Lowrie a good lead-off hitter. Both could be decent or better hitting 2nd, but neither looks to be a 3-4-5 hitter. Hu's better contact rate could make him a better # 6 hitter than Lowrie, but that wouldn't make him a a good #6 hitter.
It would seem that you and Sickles see Hu as a definate #8 hitter and Lowrie as a definate #1/2 hitter. That seems an overly large distinction to me based on the data available. A line of .288/.307/.390 would make Hu-SS a definate #8 hitter. What would a line of .275/.340/.390 make Lowrie-2B? -
[quote]
Good analysis Corey, but I didn't exactly indicate that Hu would have a .60 BA to OBP spread. I gave ranges for both BA nd OBP, and at best Hu would end up with a .60 spread, at worst a .35 or so spread. I also provided a BA range and OBP of .350+ for Lowrie, which means I see his spread as being at least .65. Note that Lowrie's BA to OBP spread in AAA was .56, and Hu's was .19.kennerbuggy:
You may be right about Hu not being able to maintain a SLG above .410 in the bigs, but what about Lowrie? Do you think Lowrie is likely to put up a SLG higer than .410 in the bigs. If so, why? I certainly don't think a high BB/PA rate is a good indicator of SLG in the bigs.
You focused on Hu with your analysis while ignoring Lowrie. Why ?
as i said, i had no argument with your anaylisis of Lowrie, i think it is dead on. so i had no need to say anything about him. i thought your expectations of Hu were a little lofty, that's all.
[quote]The comparison was my point. Fact is, they have comparable K/BB rates, the differerence being that Lowrie walks AND strikes out far more frequently than does Hu (at like 15% and 18% as compared to 6% and 8%). So, it may come down to whether one thinks a high walk rate is a better indicator of MLB success than a high contact/low K rate.
So, I guess the best way to summarize is that MY gut feel is that Hu will be the player that makes the higher impact in the bigs, largely due to Hu being a GG at the most critical defensive postion on the field (SS), while Lowrie is destined to be adequate at a position of lesser importance (2B), and neither is likely to be other than a bottom of the order hitter. Lowrie's much better BA to OBP spread makes him a far better option than Hu to hit lead-off, but that doesn't make Lowrie a good lead-off hitter. Both could be decent or better hitting 2nd, but neither looks to be a 3-4-5 hitter. Hu's better contact rate could make him a better # 6 hitter than Lowrie, but that wouldn't make him a a good #6 hitter.
It would seem that you and Sickles see Hu as a definate #8 hitter and Lowrie as a definate #1/2 hitter. That seems an overly large distinction to me based on the data available. A line of .288/.307/.390 would make Hu-SS a definate #8 hitter. What would a line of .275/.340/.390 make Lowrie-2B?
you are acting on the asumption that the Sox will not stick with Lowrie at short. i've never seen him play, so i cant say, but the Sox have said that they will be leaving him there. so untill i see him with my own eyes to form an opinion of his ability to play the position i am going to go with what the BoSox player development personel think.
as far as the two stat lines presented above, i'd rather have the second player. i'm at work and i dont really have time to get into it right now, but it is my opinion that if you have 2 players with about equal raw power the one with the better plate discipline is going to have the higher slugging percentage, so your power projections might be overly pessimistic for Lowrie...
there is as little doubt that Lowrie will out-OPS Hu as there is that Hu will win more gold gloves than Lowrie. i am not arguing your point that stating that the Sox system is better than ours based on the fact that Lowrie and Hu are about identical value wise and because one is #3 and one is #5 that makes one system better than the other, that is a stupid assumption on the part of whoever made it. but if it makes you feel better i think Hu is over-rated in our system, and IMO is more in the #6-8 range, which therefore by the logic of whomever set you on this tirade, our system is better than the Sox :)
i am not so much trying to say your analysis is wrong, because it isn't, its mostly dead on. it's just that folks around here seem to think that Hu is going to be the second comming of A-Rod. (sorry bad comparison, but i tried to find a SS who had won multiple gold gloves and had at least the offensive output that you predicted for Hu, and no one has ever done it consistantly...)
everyone is so convinced that Hu is going to be a superstar, and i really just dont see it. i just see a better izzy. which in itsself inst bad, but he's not going to be a superstar, yes Hu probably should have gotten a B+, but it's borderline. the difference in Sickels grades really arnt as big of a deal as you are making them out to be... -
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree.
I can readily grant that Lowrie would likely have a better SLG in the bigs than would Hu, but I still don't see how a player that has avereaged 6-9 HRs a year in the minors (which covers both Lowrie & Hu) is gonna be a 3-4-5 hitter in the show, and I fail to see how such a player could be rated an A- talent, regardless of what position he plays or how well he plays it.
IMO - in all likelihood, Lowrie will be a better #8 hitter and a poorer defensive player than Hu. You can call that over-rating Hu if you wish, but I see neither player having enough sock to be an impact bat in the bigs. Lowrie is gonna see a higher % of strikes in the bigs as he doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate. As such, his K/BB ratio is probably gonna get worse. Hu doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate and he doesn't have great plate discipline, so his K/B ratio also figures to get worse. And when it is all said and done, Lowrie will still walk and strike-out about twice as often as Hu, and he may be able to maintain an OBP above .350, while Hu might be lucky to maintain an OBP above .325. Everything else being equal, Lowrie will score more runs because he gets on base better, and Hu will drive in more runs as he makes more contact. I'd prefer the GG SS over the adequate 2B that has an OBP about 30 pts higher, with neither having much HR power or base-stealing ability. I'd make the same choice even if Lowrie proved to be an adequate SS, as I value defense more at SS than the ability to draw a couple dozen more walks. -
[quote]
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree.kennerbuggy:
I can readily grant that Lowrie would likely have a better SLG in the bigs than would Hu, but I still don't see how a player that has avereaged 6-9 HRs a year in the minors (which covers both Lowrie & Hu) is gonna be a 3-4-5 hitter in the show, and I fail to see how such a player could be rated an A- talent, regardless of what position he plays or how well he plays it.
IMO - in all likelihood, Lowrie will be a better #8 hitter and a poorer defensive player than Hu. You can call that over-rating Hu if you wish, but I see neither player having enough sock to be an impact bat in the bigs. Lowrie is gonna see a higher % of strikes in the bigs as he doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate. As such, his K/BB ratio is probably gonna get worse. Hu doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate and he doesn't have great plate discipline, so his K/B ratio also figures to get worse. And when it is all said and done, Lowrie will still walk and strike-out about twice as often as Hu, and he may be able to maintain an OBP above .350, while Hu might be lucky to maintain an OBP above .325. Everything else being equal, Lowrie will score more runs because he gets on base better, and Hu will drive in more runs as he makes more contact. I'd prefer the GG SS over the adequate 2B that has an OBP about 30 pts higher, with neither having much HR power or base-stealing ability. I'd make the same choice even if Lowrie proved to be an adequate SS, as I value defense more at SS than the ability to draw a couple dozen more walks.
I agree with with you, man. GG-caliber SS by itself is a valuable commodity. Lowrie sure ain't Chase Utley ... and with that said, I would certainly choose GG-caliber defense @ SS over slightly better offensive production. -
It's like watching me and Kyle today. I'd tend to see both points, and I think it's one of those times where you aren't that far off in what you are debating. Like I said years ago, Hu is not quite Izzy defensively (that is no knock because Izzy is still the best defensive SS in baseball today) but he's better than Izzy offensively. Going into last year, I thought a tick better, but after last year, two ticks better. I think the comparison to Pierre offensively is accurate with the speed-power exceptions noted. And if Juan Pierre could provide GG defense in CF, I'd argue to the death that he's got great value.
-
[quote]
[quote]DoppelgangBang:
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree.kennerbuggy:
I can readily grant that Lowrie would likely have a better SLG in the bigs than would Hu, but I still don't see how a player that has avereaged 6-9 HRs a year in the minors (which covers both Lowrie & Hu) is gonna be a 3-4-5 hitter in the show, and I fail to see how such a player could be rated an A- talent, regardless of what position he plays or how well he plays it.
IMO - in all likelihood, Lowrie will be a better #8 hitter and a poorer defensive player than Hu. You can call that over-rating Hu if you wish, but I see neither player having enough sock to be an impact bat in the bigs. Lowrie is gonna see a higher % of strikes in the bigs as he doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate. As such, his K/BB ratio is probably gonna get worse. Hu doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate and he doesn't have great plate discipline, so his K/B ratio also figures to get worse. And when it is all said and done, Lowrie will still walk and strike-out about twice as often as Hu, and he may be able to maintain an OBP above .350, while Hu might be lucky to maintain an OBP above .325. Everything else being equal, Lowrie will score more runs because he gets on base better, and Hu will drive in more runs as he makes more contact. I'd prefer the GG SS over the adequate 2B that has an OBP about 30 pts higher, with neither having much HR power or base-stealing ability. I'd make the same choice even if Lowrie proved to be an adequate SS, as I value defense more at SS than the ability to draw a couple dozen more walks.
I agree with with you, man. GG-caliber SS by itself is a valuable commodity. Lowrie sure ain't Chase Utley ... and with that said, I would certainly choose GG-caliber defense @ SS over slightly better offensive production.
Excellent comparison - Lowrie is no more Chase Utley than Hu is PayRod. I seriously doubt that Utley NEVERr hit 10 or more HRs in ANY minor league season, let alone EVERY minor league season he had.
I serously doubt Lowrie is gonna put up an OBP much higher than .350 if he doesn't have the power to hit 10+ HRs in a major league ballpark. If his MLB OBP proves to be under .350 whatever offensive advantage he has over Hu would be minimal, as neither is gonna be a MLB power hitter.
Here's a challenge - find and name the MLB hitters who put up an OPS of .350 or higher while hitting less than 10 HRs last season.
A great eye is just that - the ability to take pitches for ball four or strike 3 does not influence home run power, but home run power can influence the quality of pitches a hitter sees to where a higher % are well off the plate as that is the way most experienced pitchers would choose to err. Pretending that the batter is the only one influencing the strike zone would be ignoring that there is a guy on the rubber who has even more control of the game. -
[quote]
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree.kennerbuggy:
I can readily grant that Lowrie would likely have a better SLG in the bigs than would Hu, but I still don't see how a player that has avereaged 6-9 HRs a year in the minors (which covers both Lowrie & Hu) is gonna be a 3-4-5 hitter in the show, and I fail to see how such a player could be rated an A- talent, regardless of what position he plays or how well he plays it.
IMO - in all likelihood, Lowrie will be a better #8 hitter and a poorer defensive player than Hu. You can call that over-rating Hu if you wish, but I see neither player having enough sock to be an impact bat in the bigs. Lowrie is gonna see a higher % of strikes in the bigs as he doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate. As such, his K/BB ratio is probably gonna get worse. Hu doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into missing off the plate and he doesn't have great plate discipline, so his K/B ratio also figures to get worse. And when it is all said and done, Lowrie will still walk and strike-out about twice as often as Hu, and he may be able to maintain an OBP above .350, while Hu might be lucky to maintain an OBP above .325. Everything else being equal, Lowrie will score more runs because he gets on base better, and Hu will drive in more runs as he makes more contact. I'd prefer the GG SS over the adequate 2B that has an OBP about 30 pts higher, with neither having much HR power or base-stealing ability. I'd make the same choice even if Lowrie proved to be an adequate SS, as I value defense more at SS than the ability to draw a couple dozen more walks.
Brendt - i guess we can agree to disagree then. though if oyu want to take up a friendly bet, i'd wager a Jug of Jay's moonshine that Lowrie outproduces Hu next year :) -
[quote]
Good analysis, Corey...kennerbuggy:
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree...
Man, I've been waiting a long time for KB to do that. And he did it TWICE inside an hour.
Where's Aarlan and Aalston when I need 'em? 'Lil help, TBone? -
[quote]
It's like watching me and Kyle today.ceyheyjay:
Yeah, but we're better looking. -
[quote]
[quote]BluePastorKyle:
It's like watching me and Kyle today.ceyheyjay:
Yeah, but we're better looking.
i blame KB for messing up the average on that one... -
Okay, fools and charlatans, I am back. Am I gonna have to print up a scorecard so the fans can tell who the players are? I will explain the absence in the S&M, but a nice argument about Hu and Lowrie. Personally, I think Lowrie is heavily over rated. His range (at least at Stanford) was Karroslike and he had limited pop. Of course, I prefer Hu over Lowrie because of the glove and potential to have more pop. Usually, I will defer to Sickels, but he was very wrong on Loney, two years ago and he was way off base on Kemp during the same time frame. I think he expects young hitters to be fully developed by the time they hit AA. Nothing could be farther from reality.
Been keeping up as best as possible with doings in Vero. Looks like Torre is not letting salary figures decide his team. -
[quote]
[quote]BluePastorKyle:
Good analysis, Corey...kennerbuggy:
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree...
Man, I've been waiting a long time for KB to do that. And he did it TWICE inside an hour.
Where's Aarlan and Aalston when I need 'em? 'Lil help, TBone?
It must be our old minor league ace pitcher that gets me confused - Bryan Corey ! -
[quote]
[quote]BluePastorKyle:
Good analysis, Corey...kennerbuggy:
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree...
Man, I've been waiting a long time for KB to do that. And he did it TWICE inside an hour.
Where's Aarlan and Aalston when I need 'em? 'Lil help, TBone?
I'm totally lost bud, I am so sorry! -
[quote]
[quote]CarolinaBlues:
maybe i am just going with my gut too, and maybe i am overly hard on Dodgers prospects because i dont want to be afflicted with chronic homer-ism, like jay, who is going to be rooting for Miller long after his arm falls offkennerbuggy:
Hahaha! ZING!
:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap: -
[quote]
[quote]TBoneShelby:
[quote]BluePastorKyle:
Good analysis, Corey...kennerbuggy:
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree...
Man, I've been waiting a long time for KB to do that. And he did it TWICE inside an hour.
Where's Aarlan and Aalston when I need 'em? 'Lil help, TBone?
I'm totally lost bud, I am so sorry!
That's alright, Derek. I won't bore you with too many details, but in a game thread last season, I called Aalston "Aarlan" a couple times, and KB had fun. And indeed, it was funny... He started calling True2daBlue "TBone" and other close names by others, and so on. You kinda had to be there, but we were in tears... So I've been waiting to razz him for the same thing ever since.
Now back to your regularly scheduled ribbing, already in progress... -
[quote]
[quote]BluePastorKyle:
[quote]TBoneShelby:
[quote]BluePastorKyle:
Good analysis, Corey...kennerbuggy:
Corey - I guess we can agree to disagree...
Man, I've been waiting a long time for KB to do that. And he did it TWICE inside an hour.
Where's Aarlan and Aalston when I need 'em? 'Lil help, TBone?
I'm totally lost bud, I am so sorry!
That's alright, Derek. I won't bore you with too many details, but in a game thread last season, I called Aalston "Aarlan" a couple times, and KB had fun. And indeed, it was funny... He started calling True2daBlue "TBone" and other close names by others, and so on. You kinda had to be there, but we were in tears... So I've been waiting to razz him for the same thing ever since.
Now back to your regularly scheduled ribbing, already in progress...
Yes, but there are certain ones of us who are SO unique that we don't get confused with anyone else. Isn't that right Brendt....I mean Kyle. -
Wait... Is Carolina's name Corey too? That should get confusing. I was here first! Isn't there something in the BBWC bylaws about this? If not, I'm now known as Torgy.
Off-topic note: I just finished seasons 1-3 of HBO's cancelled show Deadwood. I recommend it to everyone and anyone. Amazing show, despite the lack of a real conclusion. I can't decide on what I should go with next; The Wire or Lost. -
[quote]
Wait... Is Carolina's name Corey too? That should get confusing. I was here first! Isn't there something in the BBWC bylaws about this? If not, I'm now known as Torgy.TheSleaze:
Off-topic note: I just finished seasons 1-3 of HBO's cancelled show Deadwood. I recommend it to everyone and anyone. Amazing show, despite the lack of a real conclusion. I can't decide on what I should go with next; The Wire or Lost.
Carolina is better known as Bryan. I think we only have one Corey. I concur on Deadwood. Like KB and others on this board, we were addicted the first time Al started dropping f-bombs. Belay that Torgy talk, I have trademarked that name, continue using it and you will hear from my shysters.:shades: -
[quote]
Wait... Is Carolina's name Corey too? That should get confusing. I was here first! Isn't there something in the BBWC bylaws about this? If not, I'm now known as Torgy.TheSleaze:
Off-topic note: I just finished seasons 1-3 of HBO's cancelled show Deadwood. I recommend it to everyone and anyone. Amazing show, despite the lack of a real conclusion. I can't decide on what I should go with next; The Wire or Lost.
They lost me in season 2. Season 1 was amazing and Wild Bill was a great character, but season 2 just lacked any true interesting story line IMO. I want to join the Wire bandwagon, but isn't it in like season 5 or 6 by now? There will be no 24 this season, and I haven't heard anything about the Unit so this may be a long year. -
[quote]
[quote]TBoneShelby:
Wait... Is Carolina's name Corey too? That should get confusing. I was here first! Isn't there something in the BBWC bylaws about this? If not, I'm now known as Torgy.TheSleaze:
Off-topic note: I just finished seasons 1-3 of HBO's cancelled show Deadwood. I recommend it to everyone and anyone. Amazing show, despite the lack of a real conclusion. I can't decide on what I should go with next; The Wire or Lost.
They lost me in season 2. Season 1 was amazing and Wild Bill was a great character, but season 2 just lacked any true interesting story line IMO. I want to join the Wire bandwagon, but isn't it in like season 5 or 6 by now? There will be no 24 this season, and I haven't heard anything about the Unit so this may be a long year.
With the exception of Lost, there isn't much on the tube that gets me all happy. Yeah, I can watch Torchwood on BBCAmerica, but that is an acquired taste and some may be turned off by the show and it's somewhat hokiness. Tried to get into In Treatment, but it was so much whining. I am hoping that Dirty Sexy Money comes back shortly and I could use a Heroes fix, but it looks like that won't come until next year. Stupid strike. Had big hopes for the Sarah Connor Chronicles and Jericho, but both seem to be thrown together on spit and a promise. Both could be better, but it looks like they were both written by six year olds. -
[quote]
[quote]grabarkewitz:
[quote]TBoneShelby:
Wait... Is Carolina's name Corey too? That should get confusing. I was here first! Isn't there something in the BBWC bylaws about this? If not, I'm now known as Torgy.TheSleaze:
Off-topic note: I just finished seasons 1-3 of HBO's cancelled show Deadwood. I recommend it to everyone and anyone. Amazing show, despite the lack of a real conclusion. I can't decide on what I should go with next; The Wire or Lost.
They lost me in season 2. Season 1 was amazing and Wild Bill was a great character, but season 2 just lacked any true interesting story line IMO. I want to join the Wire bandwagon, but isn't it in like season 5 or 6 by now? There will be no 24 this season, and I haven't heard anything about the Unit so this may be a long year.
With the exception of Lost, there isn't much on the tube that gets me all happy. Yeah, I can watch Torchwood on BBCAmerica, but that is an acquired taste and some may be turned off by the show and it's somewhat hokiness. Tried to get into In Treatment, but it was so much whining. I am hoping that Dirty Sexy Money comes back shortly and I could use a Heroes fix, but it looks like that won't come until next year. Stupid strike. Had big hopes for the Sarah Connor Chronicles and Jericho, but both seem to be thrown together on spit and a promise. Both could be better, but it looks like they were both written by six year olds.
Your last line sums up just about every show that I've been trying to get into. Sarah Conner was very disappointing and John from Cincinnati was well; interesting.
I'm waiting for the John Adams show or miniseries that HBO is promo'ing, as well as the return of Entourage although that show is less than 30 minutes which is pathetic. Other than that, there just really isn't too much, and like you said the writing is just awful these days.
Okay, wish me luck I'm off for what hopefully is my final interview for this position that I'm trying very hard to get! -
BA came out with their top 100 list today. Four Dodgers made it - Kershaw (#7), La Roche (#31). CL Hu (#55) and Elbert (#88).
Linking back to my Hu vs. Lowrie brou-ha-ha, Lowrie came in at #73, indicating that the BA crew likes Hu a bit more as well.
The Dodgers placed about as many guys as any team thru Hu at #55, but the Rays, BoSox, Bravos, Rox had more guys in the 2nd half of the list. The Rays & BoSox each placed 7 guys, and the A's, Bravos, Cubbies, hO's, Strangers, Reds & Rox placed 5 each. The Halos & Yanks matched the Dodger total. So, this better illustrates how the BoSox have a stronger system than the Dodgers than my simple comparison of Hu vs. Lowrie.
DeWitt, Kuroda & Withrow made the "Just Missed" list, with Withrow having one of the highest individual ratings from 1 of the 4 BA guys to not make the 100 composite list. No mention of McDonald.
John Manual, who did the chat, mentioned Withrow as being one of the guys most likely to break into the Top 100 next year.
The ratings seem appropriate to me, although I am surprised at no love for McDonald even on the "Just missed" list. DeWitt is about where he should be, as IMO he is yet to actually produce as expected. Most of the other Dodger players that BA had in our top 12 seem further away development-wise. -
[quote]
[quote]grabarkewitz:
[quote]TBoneShelby:
Wait... Is Carolina's name Corey too? That should get confusing. I was here first! Isn't there something in the BBWC bylaws about this? If not, I'm now known as Torgy.TheSleaze:
Off-topic note: I just finished seasons 1-3 of HBO's cancelled show Deadwood. I recommend it to everyone and anyone. Amazing show, despite the lack of a real conclusion. I can't decide on what I should go with next; The Wire or Lost.
They lost me in season 2. Season 1 was amazing and Wild Bill was a great character, but season 2 just lacked any true interesting story line IMO. I want to join the Wire bandwagon, but isn't it in like season 5 or 6 by now? There will be no 24 this season, and I haven't heard anything about the Unit so this may be a long year.
With the exception of Lost, there isn't much on the tube that gets me all happy. Yeah, I can watch Torchwood on BBCAmerica, but that is an acquired taste and some may be turned off by the show and it's somewhat hokiness. Tried to get into In Treatment, but it was so much whining. I am hoping that Dirty Sexy Money comes back shortly and I could use a Heroes fix, but it looks like that won't come until next year. Stupid strike. Had big hopes for the Sarah Connor Chronicles and Jericho, but both seem to be thrown together on spit and a promise. Both could be better, but it looks like they were both written by six year olds.
When I heard the premise for Jericho, I was pretty excited. Then the reality of the show set in. I really tried to watch it, but they blew it. More of a bad soap opera than anything else I could compare it to. I wasn't on that bandwagon to bring the show back when it was canceled the first time. Very disappointing. -
[quote]
Carolina is better known as Bryan. I think we only have one Corey. I concur on Deadwood. Like KB and others on this board, we were addicted the first time Al started dropping f-bombs. Belay that Torgy talk, I have trademarked that name, continue using it and you will hear from my shysters.:shades:grabarkewitz:
Yeah, Al was an amazing character. I didn't like how he was turning into a good guy during season two, but season three made that make sense, as Hearst was an amazing villain as well. Fantastic series and I hope they follow through with the two two-hour "movies" to wrap the series up. My second favorite show, only to The West Wing.
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