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Two years ago, Bryan McCann signed a long term deal with the Braves that took him through his three years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. The Braves also hold an option for an additional year. The deal (only considering what is relevant to Martin) will pay McCann $15.5 million through his arbitration years and $8.5 million in his first year of free agency. The option year is for $12 million with a $1 million buyout. In all, that is 4 yrs./$25 million guaranteed, with the $12 million option possibly making it a 5 yr./$36 million deal.
Also a consideration, McCann hit his first year of arbitration eligibility this year at 24 years old. Martin is a Super Two, hitting his first year of arbitration eligibility at the age of 25. Both have birthdays in mid February, so they will both be a year older during the '09 season. One last bit of relevant information . . . As a Super Two, Martin should have four more years of team control (four arb. years) before hitting free agency (although I'm not always sure about this, so if I'm wrong someone can correct me).
With Martin now amenable to a long term contract, what should we offer? And for how long? Does 3B ever factor into the equation/discussion (after Blake)?
"It is called being a professional. If you take the money, give the effort. If you are a pro in any sport, you are always supposed to give your best effort." ~Joe Morgan.
5yr/$40 million
13: (30) $10.0000 m
12: (29) $10.0000 m
11: (28) $08.7500 m
10: (27) $06.5000 m
09: (26) $04.7500 m
08: (25) $00.5000 m
07: (24) $00.3875 m
hunteralan:Two years ago, Bryan McCann signed a long term deal with the Braves that took him through his three years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. The Braves also hold an option for an additional year. The deal (only considering what is relevant to Martin) will pay McCann $15.5 million through his arbitration years and $8.5 million in his first year of free agency. The option year is for $12 million with a $1 million buyout. In all, that is 4 yrs./$25 million guaranteed, with the $12 million option possibly making it a 5 yr./$36 million deal.
Also a consideration, McCann hit his first year of arbitration eligibility this year at 24 years old. Martin is a Super Two, hitting his first year of arbitration eligibility at the age of 25. Both have birthdays in mid February, so they will both be a year older during the '09 season. One last bit of relevant information . . . As a Super Two, Martin should have four more years of team control (four arb. years) before hitting free agency (although I'm not always sure about this, so if I'm wrong someone can correct me).
With Martin now amenable to a long term contract, what should we offer? And for how long? Does 3B ever factor into the equation/discussion (after Blake)?
Dave's offer looks promising. But, keep in mind, catchers don't age well unless they are Pudge or Fisk. There should be some incentives for the last two years to protect the Dodgers in case Martin cannot catch a certain amount of games. His value is less as a third baseman. Have a base of $9 million in year four, then have bonuses for catching 110, 125, 135 games that should take the contract to around $11.5 million. If he catches 125+ games, his fifth year is automatically activated at a base of $11 million with a similar bonus structure. If he doesn't the Dodgers can buy him out for $2.5 million or pay him the same as year four. Martin, even as a third baseman is worth $6.5 million at age 30.
I'll play the radio on Southern stations because Southern Belles are Hell at night...What scares me is that it seems that with each passing year, Martin is looking a little more ordinary. I kinda hope we see how he does at least through the first half of this year before offering huge dollars.
www.relaxedlivingstore.com - Dodger fan owned and operatedNEDodger:What scares me is that it seems that with each passing year, Martin is looking a little more ordinary. I kinda hope we see how he does at least through the first half of this year before offering huge dollars.
That's debatable, NE. Certainly Martin had a down year in '08 for his standards in terms of power, but a quick look at the numbers tells us he greatly improved from 2006 to 2007. He had a drop off in 2008, but not in every category:
2006 415 ABs, 26 doubles, 10 HRs, 45/57 BB/K ratio, 10 SBs, .282 .355 .436 .791
2007 540 ABs, 32 doubles, 19 HRs, 67/89 BB/K ratio, 21 SBs, .293 .374 .469 .843
2008 553 ABs, 25 doubles, 13 HRs, 90/83 BB/K ratio, 18 SBs, .280 .385 .396 .781
It's the areas in which he's improving that strike me as a guy who truly is always learning about his craft.
For example:
- his SB/CS stealing rate has gone from 50% in 2006, to 68% in 2007, to 75% in 2008. This means he isn't slowing down, while getting smarter on the basepaths.
- his BB/K rate stayed the same the first two years, but improved so dramatically last year that he walked more than he struck out.
- his OBP has risen each year
These numbers suggest Martin is gonna put up a .285/.390/.425/.815 line for a few years to come. How many years?
Well, to respond to two posts at once, Torg, you suggest catchers don't age well, and I agree. However, Russell didn't start catching regularly until he hit A ball. He's only 25 now. He's been catching for about 6 years. He's certainly got the work ethic and body type to last another 5 or 6, with the same production (if not better).
If I were Ned, I'd probably write up a clean, easy to read deal that strongly suggests to the kid we want him to be a Dodger his entire career, should he produce what he's already been doing:
13: (30) $12M
12: (29) $10M
11: (28) $9M
10: (27) $7M
09: (26) $5M
08: (25) $0.5M
07: (24) $0.3875M
5/$43M, straight up.
- Kyle... CrossRoads Churchbpk - I think you are close on your #'s, but would expect the 09 salary to be lower, as these deals that cover the last non-FA years for young players usually don't jump up hugely at first. Turtle might see closer to $3.5M in 09, off-set by a bit more in 10 & 11.
Every silver lining has a cloud.There are a lot of recent contract extentions and/or LT contracts for catchers that could effect the contract offer to Martin ....
Cole Hamels - 3yr/$20.50 million - Deal covers last 3 arbitration years
09: (25) $4.35 m
10: (26) $6.65 m
11: (27) $9.50 m
Dustin Pedroia - 6yr/$40.50 m - Deal covers 1st year of pre arbitration, 3 years of arbitration and 2 years of FA
Bonus - $1.50 m
09: (25) $01.50 m
10: (26) $03.50 m
11: (27) $05.50 m
12: (28) $08.00 m
13: (29) $10.00 m
14: (30) $10.00 m
15: (31) $11.00 m (BO @ $0.50 m)
Brian McCann - 6yr/$27.80 m - Deal covers
Bonus - $1.00 m
07: (21) $00.50 m
08: (22) $00.80 m
09: (23) $03.50 m
10: (24) $05.50 m
11: (25) $06.50 m
12: (26) $08.50 m
Joe Mauer - 4yr/$33.00 m - Deal covers 3 years of arbitration and 1 year of FA.
07: (24) $03.75 m
08: (25) $06.25 m
09: (26) $10.00 m
10: (27) $12.50 m
Ryan Doumit - 3yr/$11.50 m - Deal covers
Bonus - $00.30 m
09: (28) $02.05 m
10: (29) $03.55 m
11: (30) $05.10 m
12: (31) $07.25 m (TO)
13: (32) $08.25 m (TO)
KB,
Martin is a "Super Two" though. He will have four (4) years of arbitration instead of three (3) and Ryan Howard's $10.00 m figure last year will help raise the cost.
BLUEFAN:KB,
Martin is a "Super Two" though. He will have four (4) years of arbitration instead of three (3) and Ryan Howard's $10.00 m figure last year will help raise the cost.
The team figures as well in contract negotiations, and the Dodgers will figure to try and keep Turtle from getting too expensive in 2009, when they are still paying big for The Invisible Man. We have a lot more payroll room in 2010, and of course even more kids maturing.
Every silver lining has a cloud.i may be in the minority here, but i only want to long term Martin if it nets us options on his first 1 or 2 FA years.
tell me exactly what is the point of only guarinteeing 4 years that we have control of him? he'll get almost the same, maybe a little more through arbitration, but more importantly, arbitration protects US. catchers get hurt alot, catchers flame out a lot, its a very hard position to play steadily for several years. so by only signing him for 4 years we are giving up the protection we have from paying out the nose for a guy on the DL, but what exactly are we gaining?
if Martin wants the security of guarinetted 10's of millions, wether he gets injured or not, i want options on his first two free agent years, i would use what Pedroia got as a baseline, Pedroia has acomplished a little more, but Martin plays a harder position, so that kind of ballances out. i'd offer him slightly more than Pedroia as an ego booster.
this is what i would offer:
2M bonus
09: (26) $03.50 m
10: (27) $05.50 m
11: (28) $08.00 m
12: (29) $10.00 m
13: (30) $12.00 m (BO @ $1.00 m)
14: (31) $15.00 m (BO @ $1.00 m)
thats 4 years 30M or 5 years 41M or 6 years 55M as a bonus the final sum is his number. its win win for everybody.
if martin wont sign past free agency i'll take my chances with Kim Ng in arbitration...
"The chance to be a general manager in major-league baseball and for a franchise as storied as this one, probably as storied as the Giants, is great." -Ned Coletti, 4/14/08CB,
I see where you are going with it, but for me the money is a little too high at the end. I don't know if you can remember the Jason Kendall contract, but $15 million on that last year makes me a little leary.
I would counter with something along these lines
5yr/$46.00 m
Deal covers 4 arbitration year + 1 FA year, also includes TO for 2 more FA years. If full value of contract is met, it would be a 7yr/$66 million deal. Fair for both sides IMO.
09: (26) $05.00 m
10: (27) $07.50 m
11: (28) $07.50 m
12: (29) $10.50 m
13: (30) $10.50 m
14: (31) $12.50 m (BO @ $2.50 m)
15: (32) $12.50 m (BO @ $2.50 m)
yeah, i'd do your deal too, i guess mine was my "final offer" not a first offer, you would have to start lower. i've noticed that a lot of guys get a lump sum bonus up front, which is kind of a "hey, we want you to be comfortable, go buy a big house close to the stadium." so i think we should factor that in.
my only concern with your deal is that it is 3 years of his free agency, i dont think that will fly with him... i think the best we are going to get is 2 years. I mean, i'd take the option on 15, i just dont think we can get that.
"don't know if you can remember the Jason Kendall contract, but $15 million on that last year makes me a little leary."
as long as its a team option i'm no leary. that being said if we can get the last year done for less than 15 mil i'm all for it.
It appears the Orioles are close to signing Nick Markakis to a six year/$65 million deal. That would tell me that a five year deal for Turtle would be for around $50+ million. Granted, they play different positions, but with the Youkilis and Pedroia deal, I would think that Martin's agent has an idea for his opening offer.
I'll play the radio on Southern stations because Southern Belles are Hell at night...One more thing to consider in this discussion: Signing Martin doesn't happen within a vaccum.
When committing money to Martin, we have to consider the ramifications it will bring when the other young players who are, or soon will be in the same situation. It's not only Martin, but Billingsley, Broxton, Ethier, Kemp, Loney, DeWitt, Kershaw, and even Kuo and Wade who need to at least be considered in this discussion.
The numbers that have been discussed for Martin are very reasonable, much along the lines I have been thinking as well. But what happens in three, four, five years when the numbers are more closely resembling $10+ million per year than the $3-6 million they do early on? For the next couple/few years, a number of these similar contracts could total $30-40 million. But after that, they could easily total $80+ million.
Maybe then, this discussion should also consider who else we would be willing to long term and at what figures they would settle as well. I know that takes us way out of the scope of what this was started as, but as I've thought about it the last couple days, I think it's important not to forget the larger scope of the team and how it will be constructed around these young players.
"It is called being a professional. If you take the money, give the effort. If you are a pro in any sport, you are always supposed to give your best effort." ~Joe Morgan.HA-
I agree with you that we need to be thinking about long terming the rest of the kids, this is the order of importance in my mind: Bills, Ethier, Martin, Kemp, Loney. thodr are the guys i want to see signed this year. if Broxton is going to be a full time closer then add him to the list too. if he isnt than i dont think we need to lock him up yet, the arbitration awards will be a lot lower if hes a setup man, but if he's a closer they will get real high, real fast, so signing him long term becomes a big priority. the priority list for next year is Kershaw, Dewitt, Wade, mcDonald. assuming they all make big strides forward. i have no interest in giving Kuo a multi year deal.
"The chance to be a general manager in major-league baseball and for a franchise as storied as this one, probably as storied as the Giants, is great." -Ned Coletti, 4/14/08HA and Sonny, I agree with what you are saying, and this is one of those times I want the McCourts to prove that what they say is no bull. While I don't agree with a lot of what the McCourts say or do, I've always felt the "McCheap" stuff was undeserved as they have spent plenty of money.
However, they have also hammered the idea that this organization is building from within, like back in the old days. OK, if that's the case, show a commitment to those players who have established themselves as, at the least, very good Major League players. I'd love to see them long-term all the young kids, carrying them through arbitration and a year or two beyond. So far, Martin, Loney, Ethier, Kemp, Billingsley and Broxton have all proven they are going to be good ML players at the least. Kershaw is such a beast, you could also include him. Wade needs to prove himself with one more solid year and Dewitt needs to take things up a notch. And like Sonny said, I don't think you ever want to give Kuo a multi-year deal, ever.
But, for me NOW is the time for McCourt to put his money where his mouth is and show that he is, in fact, going to build around these 6 or 7 guys. And if that means in 4 years or so the payroll is going to move up, so be it.
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