Andre Ethier arbitration

I am just curious what dollar amounts people expect Andre Ethier to receive either as a settlement out of arbitration or what he may get as a result of arbitration?

I am trying to forecast payroll committed towards '09 as of right now and the only unresolved arb case appears to be Ethier. I am trying to forecast his salary for '09.

Plus, I am curious as to what others think since I haven't really followed arbitration much in the past.

Die-Hard Dodger Fan:

I am just curious what dollar amounts people expect Andre Ethier to receive either as a settlement out of arbitration or what he may get as a result of arbitration?

I am trying to forecast payroll committed towards '09 as of right now and the only unresolved arb case appears to be Ethier. I am trying to forecast his salary for '09.

Plus, I am curious as to what others think since I haven't really followed arbitration much in the past.

I still think the Dodgers will sign Andre before his hearing. As I said in the Done Deal thread, I think that a long term extension is in the works here. Andre, unlike Eggplant or Turtle, has a family and he is likely not going to take the chances of arbitration. Especially against Kim Ng, who is very good at her job. Even Gagne couldn't win in his arbitration hearing against her.

If Andre does go to arbitration it will be interesting to see what he feels his value is as opposed to the Blue. I would not be surprised if the numbers from both sides are really close.

[quote][cite] Die-Hard Dodger Fan:[/cite]grabarkewitz, do you see the figure being around the same amount as jay, around $2.5 mill?

And jay, where do you base your figure from?[/quote]

An educated guess. I can't say I looked at any particular numbers, but sort of basing it on what others have gotten in their first year at his level of play. I had Martin at $4.5 and Broxton at $2.5, so I wasn't that far off in either. It looks like Broxton's deal has incentives where he'll get closer money if he can close and set-up money if he can't. Martin's was pretty close, but kissyface also thought he came in a little low.

Well, per Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, Shane Victorino settled for $3.125 mill. It was also his first year or arbitration.

I would think Ethier would get less than Victorino being that Victorino was a big part of the Phillies' World Series run.

Statistically, Victorino has a .293 avg with an .800 OPS and hit 14 HRs and had 58 RBIs and stole 36 bases. Also pitched in 30 doubles in 570 ABs.

Ethier hit .305 wih and OPS of .885 and hit 20 HRs and had 77 RBIs but stole only 6 bases. He had 38 doubles in 525 ABs.

Actually, statistically, they could be close to a wash. I mean Ethier's OPS kills Victorino's but Victorino had 36 SBs to Ethier's 6.

I believe both were pretty good defensively from what I saw of them.

If the Dodgers do get Ethier for $2.5 mill, I think it will be a very good deal for us.

ceyheyjay:

BluePastorKyle:

As MSTI pointed out yesterday, though Andre's production is about 90% of what Markakis has put up over the last three years, the O's threw stoopid money at the Greek kid, and that contract (6/$66M) can't be used as a guide. Other contracts (like Pedroia/Youk, as Torgy mentioned) have to be put up against Markakis' to try to set some kind of market value, and even those two players have arguably better numbers than our Andre, so we're still looking at 90%.

All that factored in, I believe $2.5M is a bit low. I believe he'll come in right around $3.25M for this year. If an extension is in the works to cover a year or two into his FA years, perhaps it's backloaded for '09, and could then be around $2.5M. But that's the only way I see it below $3M.

All in all, $1-2M here or there won't break the bank. I was rather surprised they didn't just make Martin's number a nice, round $4M. Ya know... a little arm around the shoulder just before putting pen to paper that says, "We love you kid - stick around." But hey, it's still a "record figure" according to kissyface for a first-year arb-eligible catcher. Me thinks Russ has to be happy with that.

Maybe they need to save that $100,000 to pay Manny's foot massager (I tried to look up massususe? but couldn't find it).

Masseuse, my good man.

[quote][cite] BluePastorKyle:[/cite]Tony Jackson says Ethier wants "$3.75 million, while the club is offering $2.65 million."

I'm a genius.

Somebody had to say it.[/quote]

Does that mean I'm Ned Colletti? Actually, it means I'm capable of thinking like Ned Colletti. Yikes!

As for your genius status....I'll just leave that to the pros (cue KB and HA).

Actually, I've had several folks tell me that Andy Reid has been doing a pretty good Jay impersonation since he started growing the beard, probably why he's so anxious to shave it off.